Trouble in the neighbourhood: Examining the influence of conflict in Afghanistan on Russia’s security hegemony in Central Asia

This thesis examines the influence of conflict in Afghanistan on Russia’s security hegemony in Central Asia. By considering Central Asia a Regional Security Complex, and by viewing Russia’s role within it through the theoretical framework of negotiated hegemony, this thesis compares the role Russia played in the region in the timeframe from the fall of the Soviet Union to 2001 with the role it played following the US invasion of Afghanistan. It is argued that Central Asia started a successful process of reducing Russia’s influence by transforming its RSC from a unipolar one dominated by Russia, to a centered one where the Central Asian Republics (CARs) themselves defined the security sphere. This long-term process was temporarily abandoned by jumping on the short-term opportunity of counterbalancing Russia’s security hegemony with that of the US from 2001 onward. Disappointed by both Russia’s inability to deal with the Afghan conflict, and the US’ disinterest in pursuing a more...Show moreThis thesis examines the influence of conflict in Afghanistan on Russia’s security hegemony in Central Asia. By considering Central Asia a Regional Security Complex, and by viewing Russia’s role within it through the theoretical framework of negotiated hegemony, this thesis compares the role Russia played in the region in the timeframe from the fall of the Soviet Union to 2001 with the role it played following the US invasion of Afghanistan. It is argued that Central Asia started a successful process of reducing Russia’s influence by transforming its RSC from a unipolar one dominated by Russia, to a centered one where the Central Asian Republics (CARs) themselves defined the security sphere. This long-term process was temporarily abandoned by jumping on the short-term opportunity of counterbalancing Russia’s security hegemony with that of the US from 2001 onward. Disappointed by both Russia’s inability to deal with the Afghan conflict, and the US’ disinterest in pursuing a more active role in the particularities of the Central Asian RSC, the CARs re-entered negotiations with Russia over its security hegemony; strengthened this time, however, by their own proven capabilities and sovereignty.Show less

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Trouble in the neighbourhood: Examining the influence of conflict in Afghanistan on Russia’s security hegemony in Central Asia