Why Do Conflicts in the Post-Soviet Space Freeze? Evidence from Moldova and Georgia

The aim of this thesis is to establish a better understanding of the inner workings of frozen conflicts, by addressing the question of how the conflicts in Moldova and Georgia in the early 90’s became frozen. The current comprehension of frozen conflicts, both in academia and policy-making circles is rather elusive, as the conflicts are often seen through a mono-theoretical lens, overlooking the potential interaction between different factors on different levels. The three main theoretical perspectives on frozen conflicts; the geopolitical, ethno-nationalist and political-economic perspective, are assessed, after which an explanatory variable is derived from each one. Subsequently, the cases of Moldova and Georgia are analyzed alongside these variables, to determine to what extent each mechanism plays a role in the development of frozen conflicts. A qualitative comparative analysis is carried out to assess the interrelation between variables, across the three different phases of a...Show moreThe aim of this thesis is to establish a better understanding of the inner workings of frozen conflicts, by addressing the question of how the conflicts in Moldova and Georgia in the early 90’s became frozen. The current comprehension of frozen conflicts, both in academia and policy-making circles is rather elusive, as the conflicts are often seen through a mono-theoretical lens, overlooking the potential interaction between different factors on different levels. The three main theoretical perspectives on frozen conflicts; the geopolitical, ethno-nationalist and political-economic perspective, are assessed, after which an explanatory variable is derived from each one. Subsequently, the cases of Moldova and Georgia are analyzed alongside these variables, to determine to what extent each mechanism plays a role in the development of frozen conflicts. A qualitative comparative analysis is carried out to assess the interrelation between variables, across the three different phases of a frozen conflict. The results of this research show that the frozen conflicts in Moldova and Georgia are neither solely ethnic nor geopolitical in nature. Ethnic tensions interplayed with geopolitical motives, which are substantiated by criminal economic incentives. Therefore, the multi-layered nature of frozen conflicts cannot fully be understood through a monotheoretical lens.Show less

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Why Do Conflicts in the Post-Soviet Space Freeze? Evidence from Moldova and Georgia