Leiden University Student Repository

Ouden, Sjoerd den (2020)

The Conclusion of Conflict: Regime Type, Authoritarian Consolidation and the Termination of Insurgency

Master thesis | International Relations (MA)

Using a number of existing datasets, this study seeks to illuminate the relation between states’ institutional configuration – degrees of democracy, militarism, and personalism – their trajectory either toward or away from democratic governance, and their propensity to terminate ongoing conflict against insurgent enemies. The study finds a negative and significant correlation between nonviolent conflict cessation and both democratisation and authoritarian consolidation. Disaggregating the data by regime type reveals that democracies and machine-type autocracies are less susceptible to this effect than either military and personalist regimes. Finally, further inspection of the data reveals that both regime type and a number of other variables act as proxies for regimes’ internal stability and the absence of intra-elite rivalry. The finding, consistent with much of the existing literature, is that intra-elite rivalry drives regimes and leaders to continue fighting, and diminishes the...Show moreUsing a number of existing datasets, this study seeks to illuminate the relation between states’ institutional configuration – degrees of democracy, militarism, and personalism – their trajectory either toward or away from democratic governance, and their propensity to terminate ongoing conflict against insurgent enemies. The study finds a negative and significant correlation between nonviolent conflict cessation and both democratisation and authoritarian consolidation. Disaggregating the data by regime type reveals that democracies and machine-type autocracies are less susceptible to this effect than either military and personalist regimes. Finally, further inspection of the data reveals that both regime type and a number of other variables act as proxies for regimes’ internal stability and the absence of intra-elite rivalry. The finding, consistent with much of the existing literature, is that intra-elite rivalry drives regimes and leaders to continue fighting, and diminishes the probability of negotiated settlement.Show less

Regime type

Authoritarian regime

Conflict termination

Democratisation

Authoritarian consolidation

Insurgency

Domestic conflict

Author

Ouden, Sjoerd den

Faculty

Faculty of Humanities

Specialisation

Global Conflict in the Modern Era

Supervisors

Thakur, Vineet

ECTS Credits

15

Language

en