New Environment, Old Fears: The Security Dilemma and the Absence of a Prohibition on Space Weapons

During the Cold War, the United States and Soviet Union demonstrated a shared interest in a military status quo in Earth orbit and exercised considerable restraint by not placing weapons in space. However, despite ever-increasing state dependency on civilian space applications, militarisation efforts have accelerated in recent decades, heightening fears that one or more states may deploy space weapons. Indeed, the catastrophic consequences of a space war appear to provide the world with an interest in keeping space conflict free but key space power states have been reluctant to implement a prohibition on weapons in space. To understand why, this paper analyses the history of space militarisation and arms control and the two most prominent explanations offered to date – that the United States has acted as a non-status quo state and that international governance has failed to deliver on its promise. Finding these unsatisfactory, the paper proposes that the absence of a space weapons...Show moreDuring the Cold War, the United States and Soviet Union demonstrated a shared interest in a military status quo in Earth orbit and exercised considerable restraint by not placing weapons in space. However, despite ever-increasing state dependency on civilian space applications, militarisation efforts have accelerated in recent decades, heightening fears that one or more states may deploy space weapons. Indeed, the catastrophic consequences of a space war appear to provide the world with an interest in keeping space conflict free but key space power states have been reluctant to implement a prohibition on weapons in space. To understand why, this paper analyses the history of space militarisation and arms control and the two most prominent explanations offered to date – that the United States has acted as a non-status quo state and that international governance has failed to deliver on its promise. Finding these unsatisfactory, the paper proposes that the absence of a space weapons prohibition is instead best understood as the product of security dilemma dynamics. These can lead even benign states with significant common interests to a self-reinforcing spiral of insecurity driven by uncertainty and fear.Show less

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New Environment, Old Fears: The Security Dilemma and the Absence of a Prohibition on Space Weapons