The Logic of Civil War Termination: A Rationalist Explanation of Rebel Behaviour

This article investigates rebel opportunity structures in non-ethnic civil wars. It argues rebel leaders act rationally and decide on war and peace on the basis of security and economic considerations. Rebel leaders only demobilize if the net benefits of peace are greater than the net benefits of war. Third-party interventions, such as United Nations peacekeeping operations, are only able to end civil war when it offers credible security guarantees to the rebel group and sufficiently alters the incentives rebel leaders face through the disruption of the rebel war economy. Only if an outside intervention manages to curb profits emanating from autonomous rebel financing, such as illicit resource extraction and trade or outside state support, will war no longer pay and will rebels comply with provisions offered in a negotiated peace settlement. The theory is supported by case studies of United Nations peacekeeping efforts during the Sierra Leone civil war (1991-2002) and the Second...Show moreThis article investigates rebel opportunity structures in non-ethnic civil wars. It argues rebel leaders act rationally and decide on war and peace on the basis of security and economic considerations. Rebel leaders only demobilize if the net benefits of peace are greater than the net benefits of war. Third-party interventions, such as United Nations peacekeeping operations, are only able to end civil war when it offers credible security guarantees to the rebel group and sufficiently alters the incentives rebel leaders face through the disruption of the rebel war economy. Only if an outside intervention manages to curb profits emanating from autonomous rebel financing, such as illicit resource extraction and trade or outside state support, will war no longer pay and will rebels comply with provisions offered in a negotiated peace settlement. The theory is supported by case studies of United Nations peacekeeping efforts during the Sierra Leone civil war (1991-2002) and the Second Congo War (1998-2003) in the Democratic Republic of Congo.Show less

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The Logic of Civil War Termination: A Rationalist Explanation of Rebel Behaviour