Exploring the Paradox of Unrealized Power: Analyzing Power Conversion, Context and Behavioral Motivation in the Battle over Ukraine since 2004

Why is it that states that are best endowed with power resources do not always achieve the outcomes they desire? This phenomenon is what Baldwin (1979) calls the “paradox of unrealized power”. Dahl (1957) famously defines power as A getting B to do something that B would otherwise not have done. An example of this paradox is the outcome of the battle between the European Union and the Russian Federation over Ukraine. Since 2004 both the EU and Russia have sought closer integration with Ukraine (Wilson and Popescu 2009). In 2014 Ukraine signed an Association Agreement with the EU, while regions in east Ukraine declared independence and Crimea even acceded to Russia (AlJazeera 2014; BBC 2014a; Reuters 2014a; Centrum for Strategic and International Studies 2014). Paradoxically, although the EU in total possesses more power resources than Russia, it was the Kremlin that achieved their desired outcome of closer integration in the east of Ukraine. In the literature on power two major...Show moreWhy is it that states that are best endowed with power resources do not always achieve the outcomes they desire? This phenomenon is what Baldwin (1979) calls the “paradox of unrealized power”. Dahl (1957) famously defines power as A getting B to do something that B would otherwise not have done. An example of this paradox is the outcome of the battle between the European Union and the Russian Federation over Ukraine. Since 2004 both the EU and Russia have sought closer integration with Ukraine (Wilson and Popescu 2009). In 2014 Ukraine signed an Association Agreement with the EU, while regions in east Ukraine declared independence and Crimea even acceded to Russia (AlJazeera 2014; BBC 2014a; Reuters 2014a; Centrum for Strategic and International Studies 2014). Paradoxically, although the EU in total possesses more power resources than Russia, it was the Kremlin that achieved their desired outcome of closer integration in the east of Ukraine. In the literature on power two major explanations aim to account for such phenomena: A’s faulty power conversion strategies and A’s failed contextual analysis (Baldwin 1979). Yet one crucial element that is absent in the contextual explanation is a theoretical model about what ultimately motivates B to comply. In order to assess whether the combination of the power conversion and the refined contextual explanation accounts for the paradox, the causal process behind the outcomes of the Ukrainian crisis of 2013/2014 is analyzed using process-tracing. The analysis of behavioral motivations suggests that B’s self-identification determines the boundaries within which A can realize its power, and that B’s identity is largely beyond the control of A. The results also indicate that A’s power conversion strategy needs to include tangible means of power to achieve the goal of territorial expansion.Show less

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Exploring the Paradox of Unrealized Power: Analyzing Power Conversion, Context and Behavioral Motivation in the Battle over Ukraine since 2004