Leiden University Student Repository

Ivanov, Simeon (2020)

The Impact of Public Attitudes on the Duration of Frozen Conflict: The Case of Nagorno-Karabakh

Master thesis | Political Science (MSc)

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains unresolved for more than three decades. Previous studies on frozen conflicts focus on various aspects contributing to their prolongation but largely neglected the influence of public opinion. However, existing studies on the relationship between public opinion and foreign policy argue that public preferences and attitudes may have a significant impact on elites’ decisions concerning conflicts’ development and resolution talks. In this thesis, I argue that studying public opinion in Armenia and Azerbaijan towards the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can have wide-ranging implications for our understanding of frozen conflicts duration. The analysis shows that negative public opinion has a profound effect on the conflict prolongation, both directly and indirectly. Directly, by constraining policy-makers in their attempts to resolve the conflict and indirectly by providing the elites with incentives to perpetuate the conflict .

frozen conflict

conflict duration

public opinion

Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

Author

Ivanov, Simeon

Faculty

Faculty of Social & Behavioural Sciences

Specialisation

International Politics

Supervisors

Haer, R. van der
Blarel, N.

ECTS Credits

20

Language

en