The State Versus the People. Protests and Violence in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

How a state responds to protests can have profound consequences, since the violent repression of protests may cause an escalation into armed conflict and diffusion to neighboring countries. State violence against protesters is an important topic of research, considering its potential to result in many civilian deaths. Even so, the literature on state repression and dissent does not explain variations in the lethality of state violence against protesters. Instead, existing studies only differentiate between violent and non-violent state responses to protests. I address this shortcoming by testing the theory that the lethality of state violence is influenced by protestergenerated concession costs. To examine my argument, I analyze state responses to Iranian protest events in 2009 and 2019. In 2019, state violence against protesters was significantly more lethal than in 2009. I compare both events using a process tracing method. The analysis shows that in 2019, protester demands were...Show moreHow a state responds to protests can have profound consequences, since the violent repression of protests may cause an escalation into armed conflict and diffusion to neighboring countries. State violence against protesters is an important topic of research, considering its potential to result in many civilian deaths. Even so, the literature on state repression and dissent does not explain variations in the lethality of state violence against protesters. Instead, existing studies only differentiate between violent and non-violent state responses to protests. I address this shortcoming by testing the theory that the lethality of state violence is influenced by protestergenerated concession costs. To examine my argument, I analyze state responses to Iranian protest events in 2009 and 2019. In 2019, state violence against protesters was significantly more lethal than in 2009. I compare both events using a process tracing method. The analysis shows that in 2019, protester demands were more radical and more recurrent, and protesters were more violent. This confirms that concession costs influence the lethality of state violence against protesters. These results provide substantial insights into the dynamics of protests and repression, which are useful for scholars, activists, and policy makers.Show less

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The State Versus the People. Protests and Violence in the Islamic Republic of Iran.