Are we still in charge, Mr. President? How regime stability shapes regional policies of the ASEAN member states

Since the end of the 1990s, the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have been increasingly divided over the organization’s longcherished code of conduct (known as the ASEAN-Way). For thirty years, a strict policy of respect for each other’s sovereignty, non-interference in domestic affairs of other member states and decision making by consensus characterized the organization. As of late however, a number of member states have been challenging and defying these rules, which are widely perceived to be of primary importance for the organization’s functioning. This thesis argues that a key determinant in explaining the changing ASEAN policies of a number of member states is alteration in, and a strong discrepancy between, the stability of the various ruling regimes of the ASEAN member states. These alterations in regime stability are strongly related to changes in the political legitimacy of a regime. This theory is tested by first examining developments...Show moreSince the end of the 1990s, the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have been increasingly divided over the organization’s longcherished code of conduct (known as the ASEAN-Way). For thirty years, a strict policy of respect for each other’s sovereignty, non-interference in domestic affairs of other member states and decision making by consensus characterized the organization. As of late however, a number of member states have been challenging and defying these rules, which are widely perceived to be of primary importance for the organization’s functioning. This thesis argues that a key determinant in explaining the changing ASEAN policies of a number of member states is alteration in, and a strong discrepancy between, the stability of the various ruling regimes of the ASEAN member states. These alterations in regime stability are strongly related to changes in the political legitimacy of a regime. This theory is tested by first examining developments in the regime stability of four ASEAN member states: Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam. Subsequently the policies of these states towards ASEAN’s pariah member Myanmar are analyzed – functioning as a proxy for state behavior with regard to the larger ASEAN-Way issue – in order to assess whether expected behavior on the basis of a state’s regime stability aligns with member state attempts to alter ASEAN’s status quo.Show less

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Are we still in charge, Mr. President? How regime stability shapes regional policies of the ASEAN member states