Influence of threat perception on EU enlargement: Russia and the 5th wave of EU enlargement

The debate on the EU and the various aspects of its enlargement process is a topic which has been viewed through various approaches; however no specific theory is capable of encompassing and explaining the EU, its behavior, position, actions and role in the international political scene in the entirety of its complexity. In this regard Kenneth Waltz stated that “If we gather more and more data and establish more and more associations, however, we will not finally find that we know something” (Waltz, 2010, p.4). Therefore, continuously piling up new data does not contribute to our understanding and it brings us to finding new approaches and methods. In this sense, this research tries to paint a clearer and wider picture of the EU and its process through some of the core/basic principles of realism. Namely the process of EU enlargement is influenced by numerous factors; this thesis however, is focused specifically on the concept of threat perception as an important external factor...Show moreThe debate on the EU and the various aspects of its enlargement process is a topic which has been viewed through various approaches; however no specific theory is capable of encompassing and explaining the EU, its behavior, position, actions and role in the international political scene in the entirety of its complexity. In this regard Kenneth Waltz stated that “If we gather more and more data and establish more and more associations, however, we will not finally find that we know something” (Waltz, 2010, p.4). Therefore, continuously piling up new data does not contribute to our understanding and it brings us to finding new approaches and methods. In this sense, this research tries to paint a clearer and wider picture of the EU and its process through some of the core/basic principles of realism. Namely the process of EU enlargement is influenced by numerous factors; this thesis however, is focused specifically on the concept of threat perception as an important external factor which influences decisions in regards to EU enlargement. Stephen Walt, through his Threat Perception Theory (TPT), has not only provided a systematic way to introduce the concept of threat perception in the overarching theory of realism, but has also through the 4 categories, provided us with a tool to determine the concrete evaluation of a threat. In this thesis, that evaluation is applied to the example of Russia and how it is perceived from the EU standpoint. Walt has defined these four categories in such a way that they are not only applicable to the evaluation of threat that comes from certain actors (states), but they also provide room for analyzing specific aspects of their policies. This thesis utilizes this applicability of Walt’s TPT and uses it to also analyze the threat coming from Russian natural gas/energy politics. Due to the fact that threat, as a wider concept, is irrefutably connected to the concepts of survival and power, this thesis will also tackle the topic through the prism of these two primary concepts of realism. When it comes to power it will more notably focus on the works of Tom Casier (2018) and the notions of positive and negative compulsory power. Where this research deviates from the (often dogmatic) principles of the realist theories is the claim that states are the unitary actors on the international scene. This thesis views, and proves, that the EU is a sui generis actor capable of creating and achieving its foreign policy goals. Thus the aforementioned concepts which are generally attributed to states in realist theories, in this research are applied to the European Union.Show less

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Influence of threat perception on EU enlargement: Russia and the 5th wave of EU enlargement