Stuck Between Giants: The case of Vietnam joining the Belt and Road Initiative in a time of precarious US global hegemony

With a ubiquitous contemporary discourse on China’s hegemonic rise and current territorial disputes in the South China Sea, China’s historical rivals joining the major power’s grand economic projects seems anomalous. This paper will show that despite historically problematic China-Vietnam relations, Vietnam still agreed upon joining the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI) due to a dependence on China for national survival. More specifically, an economic interdependence forces Vietnam to cooperate with China on projects like the BRI, as Vietnam’s regime legitimation relies on economic growth. This reality is more so related to the implications of Vietnam hypothetically refusing, than to agreeing to join however. Defection instead of cooperating on the BRI, would make Vietnam’s economic growth precarious as Vietnam is familiar with how China reciprocates these choices. Although this still leaves multiple factors forcing Vietnam’s BRI membership an unlikely reality, this paper will show...Show moreWith a ubiquitous contemporary discourse on China’s hegemonic rise and current territorial disputes in the South China Sea, China’s historical rivals joining the major power’s grand economic projects seems anomalous. This paper will show that despite historically problematic China-Vietnam relations, Vietnam still agreed upon joining the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI) due to a dependence on China for national survival. More specifically, an economic interdependence forces Vietnam to cooperate with China on projects like the BRI, as Vietnam’s regime legitimation relies on economic growth. This reality is more so related to the implications of Vietnam hypothetically refusing, than to agreeing to join however. Defection instead of cooperating on the BRI, would make Vietnam’s economic growth precarious as Vietnam is familiar with how China reciprocates these choices. Although this still leaves multiple factors forcing Vietnam’s BRI membership an unlikely reality, this paper will show that these factors are overridden by the US as a significant actor when it comes to Vietnam's cooperation on the BRI. And when it comes to reasons why China has decided to integrate a ‘historical enemy’ into the BRI, one will find that China’s contemporary dependence on Vietnam is a significant variable in the matter. These findings will be made apparent by applying game theory’s prisoner's dilemma to the bilateral event of Vietnam joining China’s grand economic initiative.Show less

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Stuck Between Giants: The case of Vietnam joining the Belt and Road Initiative in a time of precarious US global hegemony