The Impact of Agricultural Intensification on Civil Conflict in Africa

This research investigates the link between agricultural intensification and civil conflict. Agricultural intensification is a widely promoted solution for food insecurity. However, this research theorizes that agricultural intensification creates disadvantages for the smallholder sector and thus might trigger civil conflict. An OLS, negative binomial, and logistic regression analysis correlate fertilizer-use in 37 African countries to the incidence and count of civil conflicts between 2004 and 2016. The empirical results are mixed and only partly significant. Yet, they indicate agricultural intensification to have a conflictreducing effect. Surprisingly, the outcome of intensification, that is higher agricultural productivity, is significantly associated with an increased risk of conflict. Also, as a mediator agricultural productivity creates a significant and positive indirect link between intensification and civil conflict. Hence, the conflict-enhancing capacity of agricultural...Show moreThis research investigates the link between agricultural intensification and civil conflict. Agricultural intensification is a widely promoted solution for food insecurity. However, this research theorizes that agricultural intensification creates disadvantages for the smallholder sector and thus might trigger civil conflict. An OLS, negative binomial, and logistic regression analysis correlate fertilizer-use in 37 African countries to the incidence and count of civil conflicts between 2004 and 2016. The empirical results are mixed and only partly significant. Yet, they indicate agricultural intensification to have a conflictreducing effect. Surprisingly, the outcome of intensification, that is higher agricultural productivity, is significantly associated with an increased risk of conflict. Also, as a mediator agricultural productivity creates a significant and positive indirect link between intensification and civil conflict. Hence, the conflict-enhancing capacity of agricultural intensification might be contingent on whether intensification leads to an increase in agricultural productivity. This opens pathways for future research, where the impact of agricultural productivity on conflict as well as the relation between intensification and productivity should be scrutinized.Show less

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The Impact of Agricultural Intensification on Civil Conflict in Africa