Role Theory and Small States’ Foreign Policy: Explaining Hungary’s China policy under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán

Small states’ roles in international relations have often been overlooked but the dynamics have changed in recent times. With the creation of international organizations, small states can punch above their weight and exert influence, making them important actors to consider. Their foreign policy choices can have significant impacts, however, traditional theories cannot always explain them. Constructivism based role theory is a new approach to foreign policy analysis with the potential to establish the link between size and behaviour. This paper aims to test whether role theory can explain Hungary’s foreign policy behaviour between 2010 and 2021. Despite being a small state, Hungary has received disproportionally significant attention in recent years due to its baffling foreign policy shifts. Amid the increasing geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China, Hungary often blatantly supported the latter at the expense of its EU and NATO allies. Through an inductive, latent...Show moreSmall states’ roles in international relations have often been overlooked but the dynamics have changed in recent times. With the creation of international organizations, small states can punch above their weight and exert influence, making them important actors to consider. Their foreign policy choices can have significant impacts, however, traditional theories cannot always explain them. Constructivism based role theory is a new approach to foreign policy analysis with the potential to establish the link between size and behaviour. This paper aims to test whether role theory can explain Hungary’s foreign policy behaviour between 2010 and 2021. Despite being a small state, Hungary has received disproportionally significant attention in recent years due to its baffling foreign policy shifts. Amid the increasing geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China, Hungary often blatantly supported the latter at the expense of its EU and NATO allies. Through an inductive, latent content analysis of the Hungarian Prime Minister’s speeches, this research shows that role theory is a useful approach to make sense of puzzling foreign policy outcomes, especially regarding small states. The identified national role conceptions of the Prime Minister establish a direct link with the country’s confrontational foreign policy with Western allies and explain Hungary’s efforts to strengthen relations with China.Show less

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Role Theory and Small States’ Foreign Policy: Explaining Hungary’s China policy under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán