Is innovation linked to demographic shifts? A study on the association between the demographic decline and the digital transformation of Italian local governments

Several advanced countries are experiencing sub-replacement level fertility rates which, together with an increase in life expectancy, results in population decrease and ageing. Scholars have focused on studying these phenomena as potential trigger of societal and economic changes. However, the link between demographic decline and public sector innovation remains unexplored: we know little about innovation by governments when they are pressured by a population that is shrinking and ageing. This study tries to fill this gap by examining the digital transformation of Italian provincial capitals. I argue that the demographic decline can make the digitalization of local administrations less attractive, since it would shrink the pool of potential users of the innovative item. This hypothesis was tested with multiple regression analyses and the findings support the existence of a negative and statistically significant correlation between demographic decline and local government...Show moreSeveral advanced countries are experiencing sub-replacement level fertility rates which, together with an increase in life expectancy, results in population decrease and ageing. Scholars have focused on studying these phenomena as potential trigger of societal and economic changes. However, the link between demographic decline and public sector innovation remains unexplored: we know little about innovation by governments when they are pressured by a population that is shrinking and ageing. This study tries to fill this gap by examining the digital transformation of Italian provincial capitals. I argue that the demographic decline can make the digitalization of local administrations less attractive, since it would shrink the pool of potential users of the innovative item. This hypothesis was tested with multiple regression analyses and the findings support the existence of a negative and statistically significant correlation between demographic decline and local government digitalization.Show less

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Is innovation linked to demographic shifts? A study on the association between the demographic decline and the digital transformation of Italian local governments