The infertile crescent: Water scarcity and conflict intensity in the Syrian civil war

Persistent URL of this record https://hdl.handle.net/1887/3388101

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Political Science (MSc)

Graman, Daniëlle (2022)

The infertile crescent: Water scarcity and conflict intensity in the Syrian civil war

Master thesis | Political Science (MSc)

Due to climate change and rising temperatures, the world is more often facing extreme weather conditions like drought. Such conditions of water scarcity especially cause problems in countries dependent on agriculture, where failed harvests can cause negative income shocks and grievance development, influencing conflict. Focusing on the relationship between conflict intensity and water scarcity, this research explores the case of the Syrian civil war from 2011-2017, finding that over-time differences in temperatures can explain monthly variations in number of deaths. This research thereby confirms the fact that rising temperatures can lead to more intense conflict and concludes with brief discussion of policy recommendations to tackle drought-related conflict.