Perceived childhood unpredictability and decision-making under uncertainty

Empirical and theoretical work suggests that unpredictability during childhood shapes how decisions under uncertainty are made, as childhood unpredictability can make people more sensitive to uncertainty about the future. Research on this subject so far has focused on decisions leading to reward gain, but no literature is available when such decisions concern avoiding harm or loss. This study looked into the relationship between perceived childhood unpredictability (PCU) and how people make decisions under uncertainty when the goal is to avoid loss. It was hypothesized that individuals who reported higher PCU would rely on more certain cues in the environment than uncertain cues that needed to be estimated based on experience. Secondly, it was hypothesized that individuals with higher PCU would feel more uncertain while making decisions during the task than people with lower PCU. These hypotheses were tested in a healthy sample (N = 214) consisting of 104 males and 110 females...Show moreEmpirical and theoretical work suggests that unpredictability during childhood shapes how decisions under uncertainty are made, as childhood unpredictability can make people more sensitive to uncertainty about the future. Research on this subject so far has focused on decisions leading to reward gain, but no literature is available when such decisions concern avoiding harm or loss. This study looked into the relationship between perceived childhood unpredictability (PCU) and how people make decisions under uncertainty when the goal is to avoid loss. It was hypothesized that individuals who reported higher PCU would rely on more certain cues in the environment than uncertain cues that needed to be estimated based on experience. Secondly, it was hypothesized that individuals with higher PCU would feel more uncertain while making decisions during the task than people with lower PCU. These hypotheses were tested in a healthy sample (N = 214) consisting of 104 males and 110 females between the age of 18-35. All participants filled in several questionnaires, under which a questionnaire measuring PCU, and performed an online decision-making task. This task consisted of a social and a non-social (gambling) game. The results did not provide support for the hypotheses, but exploratory analyses found a relationship between PCU and the way that decisions were made in the social versus the non-social game. Specifically, those with higher PCU tend to rely more on learned contingencies than on the magnitude of the points at stake in the social game than in the non-social game. This relationship could be investigated more in future studies.Show less

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Perceived childhood unpredictability and decision-making under uncertainty