&quot;Surrender or Die&quot; The Success of Regime Counterinsurgency in Syria

Countering an insurgency can be approached in different ways: either by focusing efforts on the population, or on the insurgents themselves (the enemy). According to research, population-centric approaches to counterinsurgency are considered to be more preferable, more humane and more successful than enemy-centric approaches. However, the opposite seems to be the case in Syria, where the government is successfully carrying out an enemy-centric counterinsurgency operation. This thesis studied the counterinsurgency operation of the Syrian regime by answering the research question: How did the Syrian regime successfully carry out an enemy-centric counterinsurgency operation between 2015 and 2017? To answer the research question, a thematic analysis, grounded in case study analysis, was conducted, based on two characteristics of enemy-centric counterinsurgency: mass violence and population control measures. It argues that the Syrian regime implemented a strategy of “surrender or die”,...Show moreCountering an insurgency can be approached in different ways: either by focusing efforts on the population, or on the insurgents themselves (the enemy). According to research, population-centric approaches to counterinsurgency are considered to be more preferable, more humane and more successful than enemy-centric approaches. However, the opposite seems to be the case in Syria, where the government is successfully carrying out an enemy-centric counterinsurgency operation. This thesis studied the counterinsurgency operation of the Syrian regime by answering the research question: How did the Syrian regime successfully carry out an enemy-centric counterinsurgency operation between 2015 and 2017? To answer the research question, a thematic analysis, grounded in case study analysis, was conducted, based on two characteristics of enemy-centric counterinsurgency: mass violence and population control measures. It argues that the Syrian regime implemented a strategy of “surrender or die”, and used a combination of mass violence and population control measures to successfully force civilians into surrender, retake territory and defeat opposition forces. These outcomes show that, under certain circumstances, enemy-centric counterinsurgency can be used successfully, even though existing literature seems to suggest otherwise. Recommendations for future research are to examine whether an enemy-centric approach to counterinsurgency also contributes to the development of durable stability and effective governance by a legitimate government.Show less

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"Surrender or Die" The Success of Regime Counterinsurgency in Syria