The role of surprise and plausibility in prediction-based learning

When learning new information, generating a prediction before receiving the information strongly improves the amount of learning. To this date, the mechanisms underlying why generating predictions increases learning are poorly understood. One potential factor that influences this effect is surprise: more surprising information has been demonstrated to deepen information processing when the information differs from our expectations, which occurs when we cannot explain the new information through our belief systems. However, too much surprise may be adverse to learning, as the information may be flagged as implausible and consequently be rejected from our belief network (Munnich & Ranney, 2019). In this study, we investigated the influence of surprise and plausibility on a numerical fact-learning task using three different kinds of learning outcomes: recall, recognition, and memory updating. Using multilevel modelling, we found a nonlinear influence of surprise on immediate recall, as...Show moreWhen learning new information, generating a prediction before receiving the information strongly improves the amount of learning. To this date, the mechanisms underlying why generating predictions increases learning are poorly understood. One potential factor that influences this effect is surprise: more surprising information has been demonstrated to deepen information processing when the information differs from our expectations, which occurs when we cannot explain the new information through our belief systems. However, too much surprise may be adverse to learning, as the information may be flagged as implausible and consequently be rejected from our belief network (Munnich & Ranney, 2019). In this study, we investigated the influence of surprise and plausibility on a numerical fact-learning task using three different kinds of learning outcomes: recall, recognition, and memory updating. Using multilevel modelling, we found a nonlinear influence of surprise on immediate recall, as well as a linear influence of surprise on the updating of beliefs. We did not find a significant association between surprise and delayed recognition, nor any significant effects of plausibility on the three measures of learning, although there appeared to be a trend effect of plausibility on the updating of beliefs. Future research should further investigate when newly presented information gets rejected from belief systems, and the role that implausibility of information plays in this phenomenon.Show less

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The role of surprise and plausibility in prediction-based learning