Hellfire over the Tribal Areas: An Analysis of the Impact of United States Drone Strikes on Al Qaeda Central in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas, 2004-2011

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Crisis and Security Management (MSc)

Steenbergen, Ate Lucien van (2022)

Hellfire over the Tribal Areas: An Analysis of the Impact of United States Drone Strikes on Al Qaeda Central in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas, 2004-2011

Master thesis | Crisis and Security Management (MSc)

This thesis assesses how United States drone strikes against al Qaeda Central in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, in Pakistan, between 2004 and 2011, affected the broader organization of al Qaeda. This research was conducted by means of a 7-S analysis of al Qaeda’s broader organization throughout two timeframes: from 1988 until 2001, the pre-drone phase, and from 2001 until 2011, the intra-drone phase, across seven organizational factors, namely Shared Values, Strategy, Structure, Systems, Style, Staff and Skills. This paper found that US drone strikes directly impacted al Qaeda’s Structure, Style, Staff, Skills and Systems and indirectly its Shared Values. Al Qaeda’s Strategy remained unaffected. The drone program affected al Qaeda mostly by denying al Qaeda secure communications, killing large numbers of operatives, thereby accelerating al Qaeda’s educational and promotional processes, and by disrupting the intergenerational transfer of skills and knowledge.

al Qaeda

United States

drones

unmanned combat aerial vehicles

targeted killing

Pakistan

Federally Administred Tribal Areas

organisation

Abbottabad documents

McKinsey