The impact of the February 2021 coup on China's strategic economic and security interests in Myanmar: Beijing's worst nightmare or a blessing in disguise?

Mainstream International Relations theories perceive the China-Myanmar bilateral relationship in terms of a zero-sum game, in which the close ties between the two countries either benefit China or not. Such theories are too simplistic. Often overlooked is not only the complex domestic situation in Myanmar, but also how China and Myanmar cultivated a strong bilateral relationship during the NLD era. In order to account for Myanmar’s complex domestic context, this thesis analyses the security impact of the coup on the ethnic rebel-controlled areas bordering China, and the economic impact on the Sino-Myanmar pipelines, one of China’s major Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects. The research question of this study is: to what extent did China materially benefit from the February 1 coup in Myanmar? This thesis concludes that the coup increased the intensity of the conflict with EAOs, thus worsening the subsequent adverse conflict spill-over effect in the border areas. Furthermore,...Show moreMainstream International Relations theories perceive the China-Myanmar bilateral relationship in terms of a zero-sum game, in which the close ties between the two countries either benefit China or not. Such theories are too simplistic. Often overlooked is not only the complex domestic situation in Myanmar, but also how China and Myanmar cultivated a strong bilateral relationship during the NLD era. In order to account for Myanmar’s complex domestic context, this thesis analyses the security impact of the coup on the ethnic rebel-controlled areas bordering China, and the economic impact on the Sino-Myanmar pipelines, one of China’s major Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects. The research question of this study is: to what extent did China materially benefit from the February 1 coup in Myanmar? This thesis concludes that the coup increased the intensity of the conflict with EAOs, thus worsening the subsequent adverse conflict spill-over effect in the border areas. Furthermore, China’s BRI investments, including the pipelines, have historically been more secure under civilian NLD rule then under the military Tatmadaw rule. Thus, the February 2021 coup does not materially benefit China.Show less

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The impact of the February 2021 coup on China's strategic economic and security interests in Myanmar: Beijing's worst nightmare or a blessing in disguise?