Leiden University Student Repository

Nes, Demi van de (2022)

INCUMBENT REELECTION AND ELECTORAL ACCOUNTABILITY: A case study of the 2022 Brazilian Elections

Master thesis | Latin American Studies (MA)

This paper analyzes the impact of various policy subject on the Latin American electoral accountability. Knowing to which factors electoral accountability is prone in the reelection of Latin American incumbents is relevant to the incumbents themselves at first. According to the democratic dividend theory, incumbents could increase their likelihood of securing its next term by providing certain policy merits to the population. Moreover, for scientific reasons, it could explain why some incumbents are reelected and others are not. Furthermore, it allows to better evaluate and analyze previous and upcoming elections in Latin America. First, a multi-level regression analysis is conducted concerning the effect of various factors on the incumbent’s reelection. Based on this research, GDP growth and corruption have significant effects on the reelection chances of incumbents. These results are applied to Brazil’s 2022 Presidential elections. The analysis is conducted with semi-structured...Show moreThis paper analyzes the impact of various policy subject on the Latin American electoral accountability. Knowing to which factors electoral accountability is prone in the reelection of Latin American incumbents is relevant to the incumbents themselves at first. According to the democratic dividend theory, incumbents could increase their likelihood of securing its next term by providing certain policy merits to the population. Moreover, for scientific reasons, it could explain why some incumbents are reelected and others are not. Furthermore, it allows to better evaluate and analyze previous and upcoming elections in Latin America. First, a multi-level regression analysis is conducted concerning the effect of various factors on the incumbent’s reelection. Based on this research, GDP growth and corruption have significant effects on the reelection chances of incumbents. These results are applied to Brazil’s 2022 Presidential elections. The analysis is conducted with semi-structured interviews with experts in the field. This analysis highlights the importance of economic voting as well. Moreover, it mentions influential factors, such as healthcare policy, evangelic voting, and international economic influences. Altogether, this analysis emphasizes the importance of economic voting and economic electoral accountability in Latin American countries. This allows researchers to further analyze the Latin American elections through a better scope.Show less

Incumbent

Reelection

Latin America

Brazil

Electoral Accountability

Economic Voting

Brazilian Elections

Jair Bolsonaro

Author

Nes, Demi van de

Faculty

Faculty of Humanities

Specialisation

Public Policies in Latin America

Supervisors

Amann, E.

ECTS Credits

20

Language

en