Statistical Criminal Profiling: Predicting Homicide Offender Characteristics using a Bayesian Network

Criminal profiling is a rapidly growing field of research, in which statistics get more and more incorporated alongside of the traditional behavioural profiling approach that uses psychological theories to predict the behaviour of an offender. A model was built to predict the offender characteristics from crime and victim characteristics for single-victim-single-offender homicides in the Netherlands. Using the Dutch Homicide Monitor, eight different Bayesian network structure learning algorithms were combined into one model; arcs that were present in at least three separate structure learning algorithms were represented in the combined model and its direction was determined by the highest cumulative arc strength. The graphical representation of the model gives insight into the dependence relationships between crime, victim, and offender characteristics, and therefore could be used to confirm existing and develop new hypotheses on criminal psychology. Moreover, with an appropriate...Show moreCriminal profiling is a rapidly growing field of research, in which statistics get more and more incorporated alongside of the traditional behavioural profiling approach that uses psychological theories to predict the behaviour of an offender. A model was built to predict the offender characteristics from crime and victim characteristics for single-victim-single-offender homicides in the Netherlands. Using the Dutch Homicide Monitor, eight different Bayesian network structure learning algorithms were combined into one model; arcs that were present in at least three separate structure learning algorithms were represented in the combined model and its direction was determined by the highest cumulative arc strength. The graphical representation of the model gives insight into the dependence relationships between crime, victim, and offender characteristics, and therefore could be used to confirm existing and develop new hypotheses on criminal psychology. Moreover, with an appropriate threshold resulting in a prediction error of less than 10 percent, the combined Bayesian network might be suitable for actual implementation by the police. This practical implication and the restrictions of the model are discussed, and recommendations for future research are given.Show less

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Statistical Criminal Profiling: Predicting Homicide Offender Characteristics using a Bayesian Network