The Importance of Viable Alternatives: Economic Voting and Opposition Configuration

The rationale behind economic voting is simple: the citizen votes for the government if the economy is doing all right; otherwise, the vote is against (Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier 2000). However, various studies have found cross-country and across-time variation regarding the intensity of economic voting (e.g., Paldam 1991; Anderson 1995; Duch and Stevenson 2008), leading an increasing number of scholars to discuss and test potential moderators of the economic vote equation (e.g., Anderson 2000; Duch and Stevenson 2008). Nonetheless, only a few authors have regarded the characteristics of the alternative to the underperforming incumbent, the opposition, as potential moderating factors (Anderson 2000; Maeda 2009; Ferrer 2023). Therefore, the goal of this thesis is to understand how the configuration of the parliamentary opposition, regarding its fragmentation and polarization, impacts its viability as an alternative and, consequently, the intensity of economic voting. Using data from...Show moreThe rationale behind economic voting is simple: the citizen votes for the government if the economy is doing all right; otherwise, the vote is against (Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier 2000). However, various studies have found cross-country and across-time variation regarding the intensity of economic voting (e.g., Paldam 1991; Anderson 1995; Duch and Stevenson 2008), leading an increasing number of scholars to discuss and test potential moderators of the economic vote equation (e.g., Anderson 2000; Duch and Stevenson 2008). Nonetheless, only a few authors have regarded the characteristics of the alternative to the underperforming incumbent, the opposition, as potential moderating factors (Anderson 2000; Maeda 2009; Ferrer 2023). Therefore, the goal of this thesis is to understand how the configuration of the parliamentary opposition, regarding its fragmentation and polarization, impacts its viability as an alternative and, consequently, the intensity of economic voting. Using data from 208 elections that took place in 29 European democracies between 1989 and 2021, I found that a more fragmented opposition actually increases the intensity of economic voting. However, I did not reach any statistically significant conclusions regarding the effect of the polarization of the opposition on the intensity of economic voting.Show less

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The Importance of Viable Alternatives: Economic Voting and Opposition Configuration