HOW WAR INFLUENCES THE AGENDA OF ORGANIZED CYBERCRIMINAL GROUPS: A CASE STUDY OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR

Organized cybercrime groups (OCGs) are a significant threat to the security of European critical infrastructure, but little is understood about the impact of conflict on their operations. With the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, this can result in unpredictable situations, weakening defensive capabilities. Not much has yet been written on the influence of war on these groups, but the dominant view is that OCGs will invariably act towards monetary gain, coming from studies of ‘traditional’ organized crime. Data is used from cyber threat reports and interviews with industry-leading experts to explore the influence of the war on the operations of OCGs towards critical infrastructure, and to find explanations for a change in behaviour. Using qualitative thematic analysis, configurated using Rational Choice Theory (RCT) by Mandelcorn et al. (2016), the findings are analysed to get an academic and generalizable understanding of the phenomenon. In line what has often been assumed with ...Show moreOrganized cybercrime groups (OCGs) are a significant threat to the security of European critical infrastructure, but little is understood about the impact of conflict on their operations. With the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, this can result in unpredictable situations, weakening defensive capabilities. Not much has yet been written on the influence of war on these groups, but the dominant view is that OCGs will invariably act towards monetary gain, coming from studies of ‘traditional’ organized crime. Data is used from cyber threat reports and interviews with industry-leading experts to explore the influence of the war on the operations of OCGs towards critical infrastructure, and to find explanations for a change in behaviour. Using qualitative thematic analysis, configurated using Rational Choice Theory (RCT) by Mandelcorn et al. (2016), the findings are analysed to get an academic and generalizable understanding of the phenomenon. In line what has often been assumed with ‘traditional’ organized crime, OCGs continued acting with financial profit as their goal, which can be explained using Rational Choice Theory. Contrarily, some groups politically aligned themselves with Russia or Ukraine, which is more difficult to justify using RCT. Therefore, this thesis proposes a contribution to the theory by incorporating political ideology specifically.Show less

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HOW WAR INFLUENCES THE AGENDA OF ORGANIZED CYBERCRIMINAL GROUPS: A CASE STUDY OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR