Disaster Strikes: The Influence of Climate Disasters on Conflict Intensity

Climate disasters have significant implications for development and human security, especially in contexts that are already fragile and vulnerable such as conflict-affected areas. However, their influence on conflict intensity in ongoing armed civil conflicts has thus far been chronically understudied. In this thesis, I examine the potential causal mechanisms linking the occurrence of sudden-onset climate disasters and fluctuations in conflict intensity using Somalia as a single case study and theory-testing process tracing. This builds on existing research by considering the emotional and psychological impact of sudden-onset disasters in contexts of conflict and its subsequent effect on aggression and violence. The case-study analysis establishes, to a certain extent, a causal link between the occurrence of sudden-onset disasters and increases in conflict intensity. However, certain contextual factors, such as the strength of state infrastructure, are identified as key determinants...Show moreClimate disasters have significant implications for development and human security, especially in contexts that are already fragile and vulnerable such as conflict-affected areas. However, their influence on conflict intensity in ongoing armed civil conflicts has thus far been chronically understudied. In this thesis, I examine the potential causal mechanisms linking the occurrence of sudden-onset climate disasters and fluctuations in conflict intensity using Somalia as a single case study and theory-testing process tracing. This builds on existing research by considering the emotional and psychological impact of sudden-onset disasters in contexts of conflict and its subsequent effect on aggression and violence. The case-study analysis establishes, to a certain extent, a causal link between the occurrence of sudden-onset disasters and increases in conflict intensity. However, certain contextual factors, such as the strength of state infrastructure, are identified as key determinants for such a causal link to be established.Show less

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Disaster Strikes: The Influence of Climate Disasters on Conflict Intensity