Before and after Zeitenwende: The change of German foreign policy paradigms due to Russian acts of aggression in 2014 and 2022

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Europe (and beyond) has adopted its foreign policy which meant for many countries providing military support to Ukraine and/ or agreeing to harsh economic sanctions against Russia. However, the German case is special: Due to historical reasons and – at the latest since 1990 – the expansion of political and economic networks, Germany has been heavily involved in EU-Russia relations and became Russia’s most important partner in Brussels. Against this background, this thesis attempts to answer the following question: Why did a major foreign policy change in Germany only happen in 2022 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine – and not already in 2014 after the Russian annexation of Crimea? This is done by performing a comparative case study and applying process tracing for the years 2014 and 2022 – enrichened by extensive interview research in Berlin with senior MFA officials, MPs specialised in foreign policy as well as with...Show moreFollowing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Europe (and beyond) has adopted its foreign policy which meant for many countries providing military support to Ukraine and/ or agreeing to harsh economic sanctions against Russia. However, the German case is special: Due to historical reasons and – at the latest since 1990 – the expansion of political and economic networks, Germany has been heavily involved in EU-Russia relations and became Russia’s most important partner in Brussels. Against this background, this thesis attempts to answer the following question: Why did a major foreign policy change in Germany only happen in 2022 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine – and not already in 2014 after the Russian annexation of Crimea? This is done by performing a comparative case study and applying process tracing for the years 2014 and 2022 – enrichened by extensive interview research in Berlin with senior MFA officials, MPs specialised in foreign policy as well as with journalists. This thesis finds that in both years an exogenous political shock triggered the change process – but with a different scope. That is best explained by the reprioritisation and (partly) neglection of core pillars of German foreign policy – Ostpolitik, Wandel durch Handel, Westbindung, non-military foreign policy and historical responsibility – that occurred from 2014 to 2022.Show less

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Before and after Zeitenwende: The change of German foreign policy paradigms due to Russian acts of aggression in 2014 and 2022