Economic Development Aid and  Conflict Intensity in Minor Civil Conflicts

How does economic development aid affect conflict intensity in minor civil conflicts? Previous research has found that economic development aid in civil wars can effectively reduce conflict intensity. It does so either directly by incentivising the population to cooperate with the government or indirectly by raising the opportunity costs of joining an insurgency. I propose that the same holds for minor civil conflicts. Due to insurgent groups’ weakness vis-à-vis the government, I argue that development aid in minor conflicts will have a greater substantive effect than in civil wars. Using data on 59 aid projects in federal states across Ethiopia, Mali, and Nigeria, I show that regions receiving development aid experience less violence than those without aid projects in regions under government control. However, an increase in development projects within these regions is associated with an increase in conflict intensity. In regions under insurgent territorial control, development aid...Show moreHow does economic development aid affect conflict intensity in minor civil conflicts? Previous research has found that economic development aid in civil wars can effectively reduce conflict intensity. It does so either directly by incentivising the population to cooperate with the government or indirectly by raising the opportunity costs of joining an insurgency. I propose that the same holds for minor civil conflicts. Due to insurgent groups’ weakness vis-à-vis the government, I argue that development aid in minor conflicts will have a greater substantive effect than in civil wars. Using data on 59 aid projects in federal states across Ethiopia, Mali, and Nigeria, I show that regions receiving development aid experience less violence than those without aid projects in regions under government control. However, an increase in development projects within these regions is associated with an increase in conflict intensity. In regions under insurgent territorial control, development aid substantially increases conflict intensity.Show less

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Economic Development Aid and Conflict Intensity in Minor Civil Conflicts