Leiden University Student Repository

Iwersen, Tillmann (2024)

Not Just a Numbers Game: The Effects of Opposition Fragmentation and Polarisation in 19 Established Democracies

Master thesis | Political Science (MSc)

This paper contributes to the growing body of research on opposition fragmentation by asking whether the opposition’s format influences its publicly perceived performance and electoral success, as well as people’s satisfaction with democracy. Using regression analyses, I show that both the polarisation and the fragmentation of the opposition are associated with a decline in people’s attitudes toward them. Furthermore, an increase in opposition polarisation is associated with a decline in citizens’ satisfaction with democracy, while the fragmentation of the opposition shows the opposite effect. Lastly, the opposition’s polarisation and fragmentation show no significant effect on the governing parties’ vote share. Overall, the results of this paper suggest that investigating the format of the opposition gives insides not only into the public perception of opposition parties but also into citizens’ satisfaction with democracy.

Democracy

Opposition

Polarisation

Fragmentation

Author

Iwersen, Tillmann

Faculty

Faculty of Social & Behavioural Sciences

Specialisation

Democracy and Representation

Supervisors

Biezen, I. van

ECTS Credits

20

Language

en