EU Sanctions Against Russia: Domestic Influence of Poland and Hungary

This research investigates the continuity of European Union (EU) sanctions against Russia in the aftermath of the 2014 Crimea annexation, highlighting the diversity of member state attitudes towards Russia. The research question that will be answered is: How does the interaction between domestic- and EU-level, within both conciliatory and hardline member states, influence the continuity of EU sanctions against Russia? Putnam's two-level game theory is employed, providing a framework to analyze the interaction between domestic political considerations and international negotiations. This study formulates two hypotheses: Hypothesis 1 posits that dissatisfaction with a larger sanction package among hardline states facilitates agreement in the European Council, and Hypothesis 2 suggests that satisfaction with a larger sanction package among conciliatory states similarly facilitates agreement. A qualitative comparative analysis between Hungary and Poland tests these hypotheses. It...Show moreThis research investigates the continuity of European Union (EU) sanctions against Russia in the aftermath of the 2014 Crimea annexation, highlighting the diversity of member state attitudes towards Russia. The research question that will be answered is: How does the interaction between domestic- and EU-level, within both conciliatory and hardline member states, influence the continuity of EU sanctions against Russia? Putnam's two-level game theory is employed, providing a framework to analyze the interaction between domestic political considerations and international negotiations. This study formulates two hypotheses: Hypothesis 1 posits that dissatisfaction with a larger sanction package among hardline states facilitates agreement in the European Council, and Hypothesis 2 suggests that satisfaction with a larger sanction package among conciliatory states similarly facilitates agreement. A qualitative comparative analysis between Hungary and Poland tests these hypotheses. It utilizes national policy papers, position tracing through secondary literature, and public opinion polls to examine the rationale behind each country's approach, the satisfaction among political leaders, public opinion, and business elites on the EU sanction package against Russia. The analysis finds evidence in support of both hypotheses, demonstrating the ways in which the domestic public can influence negotiations within the European Council, particularly concerning sanctions against Russia.Show less

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EU Sanctions Against Russia: Domestic Influence of Poland and Hungary