Rising Tides, Rising Tensions: Assessing the Impact of China’s Island-Building on Regional Stability

This thesis analyzes the characteristics of China’s island-building activities in the South China Sea and assesses their impact on the regional stability of East Asia. The focus is on how these activities have influenced regional stability by prompting a reaction from other regional actors which underlines a shift in diplomatic and defense postures. This thesis builds on the hypothesis that the military nature of these fortifications and China’s recent increase in assertive behaviors are building up the perception of threats among other regional actors, fueling distrust. This ultimately pushes these actors to implement countermeasures and disengage from dialogue with China. The thesis aims to test this hypothesis through a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods, including discourse and content analysis of government officials’ statements and policy documents. The research finds that key regional actors such as the Philippines, Japan, and the United States...Show moreThis thesis analyzes the characteristics of China’s island-building activities in the South China Sea and assesses their impact on the regional stability of East Asia. The focus is on how these activities have influenced regional stability by prompting a reaction from other regional actors which underlines a shift in diplomatic and defense postures. This thesis builds on the hypothesis that the military nature of these fortifications and China’s recent increase in assertive behaviors are building up the perception of threats among other regional actors, fueling distrust. This ultimately pushes these actors to implement countermeasures and disengage from dialogue with China. The thesis aims to test this hypothesis through a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods, including discourse and content analysis of government officials’ statements and policy documents. The research finds that key regional actors such as the Philippines, Japan, and the United States adopted, in response to China’s island-building, a similar pattern of declarative opposition, countermeasures, and diplomatic disengagement which reflects an increase in the perception of threats. This study concludes that although escalation of tensions may still be unlikely, the changes in the security environment highlight a decline in regional stability, which urges for a focus on diplomatic settlement of the South China Sea disputes.Show less

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Rising Tides, Rising Tensions: Assessing the Impact of China’s Island-Building on Regional Stability