The Changing Political Landscape of the 2024 Senegalese Presidential Election, and the Pivotal Role of the Casamance: A Study on Regional Impacts &amp; Political Dynamics

The Casamance Conflict remains a critical factor in Senegal's contemporary political landscape, reflecting deep-rooted regional grievances characterised by long standing socio-economic disparities, political marginalisation. The region's unresolved tensions - similar to those leading to conflict outbreak in 1984 - continue to shape national politics, particularly in the context of the rise of anti-establishment populist Ousmane Sonko and the 2024 Senegalese presidential election. This study examined the interconnected roles of the Casamance and the localised conflict, Ousmane Sonko success, and the 2024 Constitutional Crisis. It sought to understand how "Low-Intensity Conflicts" and core-periphery dynamics have catalysed Ousmane Sonko's emergence as the dominant figure, influencing the longue-durée trajectory of Senegalese democracy. This study used a mix-methods approach, integrating fieldwork, expert interviews, media and literature analysis, and ethnographic obersations to reach...Show moreThe Casamance Conflict remains a critical factor in Senegal's contemporary political landscape, reflecting deep-rooted regional grievances characterised by long standing socio-economic disparities, political marginalisation. The region's unresolved tensions - similar to those leading to conflict outbreak in 1984 - continue to shape national politics, particularly in the context of the rise of anti-establishment populist Ousmane Sonko and the 2024 Senegalese presidential election. This study examined the interconnected roles of the Casamance and the localised conflict, Ousmane Sonko success, and the 2024 Constitutional Crisis. It sought to understand how "Low-Intensity Conflicts" and core-periphery dynamics have catalysed Ousmane Sonko's emergence as the dominant figure, influencing the longue-durée trajectory of Senegalese democracy. This study used a mix-methods approach, integrating fieldwork, expert interviews, media and literature analysis, and ethnographic obersations to reach conclusions on the Casamance's centrality to Senegalese politics in the 2020s. Findings indicate that the Casamance's socio-political marginalisation and systemic economic exploitation have catalysed Ousmane Sonko's political appeal and anti-establishment politics. The Constitutional Crisis of 2024, triggered by then-President Macky Sall, exacerbated core-periphery tensions and undermined national stability, cementing deep-rooted issues amongst the governing class. Ultimately, Senegal's unique political culture and regionally-distinct institutional resilience triumphed amidst a paradigm of regional democratic backsliding, leading to a peaceful transition of power. The findings of this study highlight the critical role of the Casamance in reshaping Senegal's future despite polemic marginalisation.Show less

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The Changing Political Landscape of the 2024 Senegalese Presidential Election, and the Pivotal Role of the Casamance: A Study on Regional Impacts & Political Dynamics