Leiden University Student Repository

Barth, David (2024)

Grievance, Fear, Greed or Survival? Comparing Alternative Explanations for Russia's Decision to Invade Ukraine in February 2022

Master thesis | International Relations (MA)

This thesis juxtaposes several different hypotheses for why Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. All of these rival explanations have been derived from the scholarly literature, as well as Kremlin output. By using Bayesian logic-process tracing, it establishes a hierarchy of plausibility. It concludes that Ukraine's identity as perceived by Russia is that of an inalienable sphere of influence that threatens to be lost to another bloc. Finally, the thesis proposes elite rivalry as a plausible explanation for this conflict for the first time.

Ukraine War, Elite Rivalry, Spheres of Influence, Full-Scale Invasion, Natural Resources, Popular Control

Author

Barth, David

Faculty

Faculty of Humanities

Specialisation

Global Conflict in the Modern Era

Supervisors

Eelco van der Maat

ECTS Credits

15

Language

en