Is the Tide Turning? - Xi Jinping’s One Belt-One Road Initiative and the Shift in Chinese Foreign Policy

The One Belt-One Road (OBOR) initiative, also referred to as the ‘New Silk Road’, is possibly the single most impactful foreign policy initiavite of the coming decades. Launched by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013, it aims at reconnecting various regions of Eurasia from China to Germany and from Russia to Iran and India. At first glance the idea of a silk road evokes the romantic sentiment of a historic symbol that brought prosperity to Eurasia and overcame borders and dichotomies between ‘East’ and ‘West’. Yet, some foreign scholars and media outlets have been quick to interpret OBOR as a competitive, geopolitical grand strategy, or a Chinese Marshall plan that is guided by China’s domestic, economic and security interest to help China disrupt the current global order. I will provide a somewhat different narrative for making sense of Xi Jinping’s ‘New Silk Road’ initiative in the context of China’s rise. Hence, I ask the question whether or not the ‘tide is turning’, or more...Show moreThe One Belt-One Road (OBOR) initiative, also referred to as the ‘New Silk Road’, is possibly the single most impactful foreign policy initiavite of the coming decades. Launched by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013, it aims at reconnecting various regions of Eurasia from China to Germany and from Russia to Iran and India. At first glance the idea of a silk road evokes the romantic sentiment of a historic symbol that brought prosperity to Eurasia and overcame borders and dichotomies between ‘East’ and ‘West’. Yet, some foreign scholars and media outlets have been quick to interpret OBOR as a competitive, geopolitical grand strategy, or a Chinese Marshall plan that is guided by China’s domestic, economic and security interest to help China disrupt the current global order. I will provide a somewhat different narrative for making sense of Xi Jinping’s ‘New Silk Road’ initiative in the context of China’s rise. Hence, I ask the question whether or not the ‘tide is turning’, or more concretely: Does the OBOR initiative represent a change in Chinese foreign policy, and if so: What kind of change? I will outline major arguments of US realist and Chinese scholars on the debate about China’s rise. I will then critically outline how this debate is framed by how traditional IRT analyse China’s foreign policy. Taking this as the context to my argument I will describe how OBOR reflects a change in the way that the Chinese government conducts its international affairs under Xi Jinping and how the discourse on IRT affects the analysis of OBOR, which is still in its conceptualisation phase. I offer two interpretations of such change: One critically acknowledges more realist domestic and self-interested factors that motivate OBOR; the other argues that OBOR is more complex and could facilitate responsible engagement with global challenges such as global economic imbalances, cultural heritage, and international security. Finally, I conduct a short case study on the rise of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in the context of OBOR and international security to build on the narrative of a more globally responsible China that increasingly uses multilateralism. I find that particularly examining transnational factors of the initiative helps to understand the New Silkroad in the context of a possible peaceful rise that improves human connectivity, exchange, and has the potential to tackle global challenges.Show less

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Is the Tide Turning? - Xi Jinping’s One Belt-One Road Initiative and the Shift in Chinese Foreign Policy