Leiden University Student Repository

Almeida Correia Nogueira de Brito, Leonor (2024)

Evaluating Determinants of Cereal Crop Yield in the EU through Structural Equation Modeling

Master thesis | Statistics and Data Science (MSc)

To meet the food demands of a growing population, global cereal production must continue to increase. With limited land available for agriculture, and the added pressure of climate change, improving cereal yields on existing land is critical. However, relying on more intensive use of resources can be harmful to our ecosystems and economies. To ensure sustainable growth, a key focus must be nutrient use efficiency (NUE) – the ability of crops to absorb and utilize nutrients efficiently. A variety of factors, including farming practices, socioeconomic conditions, and climate, influence both crop yields and NUE. As such, this study employs structural equation modeling (SEM) to evaluate how these factors impact cereal yields, both directly and indirectly through NUE. SEM was chosen for its capacity to analyze complex relationships and mediation effects. The model, applied to 26 EU countries from 2006 to 2020, includes 14 observed variables representing key influences and two latent...Show moreTo meet the food demands of a growing population, global cereal production must continue to increase. With limited land available for agriculture, and the added pressure of climate change, improving cereal yields on existing land is critical. However, relying on more intensive use of resources can be harmful to our ecosystems and economies. To ensure sustainable growth, a key focus must be nutrient use efficiency (NUE) – the ability of crops to absorb and utilize nutrients efficiently. A variety of factors, including farming practices, socioeconomic conditions, and climate, influence both crop yields and NUE. As such, this study employs structural equation modeling (SEM) to evaluate how these factors impact cereal yields, both directly and indirectly through NUE. SEM was chosen for its capacity to analyze complex relationships and mediation effects. The model, applied to 26 EU countries from 2006 to 2020, includes 14 observed variables representing key influences and two latent variables representing NUE and agricultural emissions. The model demonstrates a strong fit according to established indices and confirms the significant influence of several variables. It also emphasizes the mediating role of NUE in sustainably increasing yields. This research establishes a foundation for SEM in the context of sustainable agriculture and productivity, paving the way for future studies with more granular data to inform targeted agricultural strategies.Show less

Author

Almeida Correia Nogueira de Brito, Leonor

Faculty

Faculty of Science

Supervisors

Avagyan, V.

ECTS Credits

30

Language

en