An audit on expert analyses: implications  of North Korea’s military provocations for regional stability

This thesis investigates how North Korea’s military provocations impact regional stability, through a case study approach using a thematic coding analysis. This research used two case studies, these being the DPRK’s first solid-fuel ICBM and its launch of a reconnaissance satellite. This thesis has explored different aspects of these case studies, such as the implications of the actual events, their perceived capabilities, and an assessment of North Korea’s possible motives for pursuing them. Furthermore, this thesis has highlighted different foreign policy responses by the US, ROK, and Japan to these case studies and their impact on regional stability. These analyses have led to the following conclusion: the solid-fuel ICBM tests and reconnaissance satellite have directly contributed to increasing instability in the region due to foreign policy responses by the US and its allies. However, it is implausible that this was because of the perceived threat these case studies would pose...Show moreThis thesis investigates how North Korea’s military provocations impact regional stability, through a case study approach using a thematic coding analysis. This research used two case studies, these being the DPRK’s first solid-fuel ICBM and its launch of a reconnaissance satellite. This thesis has explored different aspects of these case studies, such as the implications of the actual events, their perceived capabilities, and an assessment of North Korea’s possible motives for pursuing them. Furthermore, this thesis has highlighted different foreign policy responses by the US, ROK, and Japan to these case studies and their impact on regional stability. These analyses have led to the following conclusion: the solid-fuel ICBM tests and reconnaissance satellite have directly contributed to increasing instability in the region due to foreign policy responses by the US and its allies. However, it is implausible that this was because of the perceived threat these case studies would pose through their capabilities. Instead, it is more likely that they invoked these policy responses by being a continuation of North Korean provocations and possibly embody concerns with regards to Russian-North Korean relations.Show less

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An audit on expert analyses: implications of North Korea’s military provocations for regional stability