The Political Economy of Sanctions: Regime Response and Trade Integration

Why do some countries targeted by economic sanctions manage to preserve their stability, while others sink into crisis? This research explores the resilience mechanisms of states under international pressure, combining economic and political approaches. Through an empirical analysis covering a sample of countries sanctioned between 2005 and 2023, the thesis examines the impact of two key variables: trade openness and the type of political regime. The results show that countries with high trade openness tend to maintain higher GDP growth in the event of sanctions, although they may face higher inflation. Authoritarian regimes, on the other hand, appear to be more vulnerable in terms of economic growth, despite their political control mechanisms. These observations raise questions about whether economic sanctions are always a strong tool for forcing countries to change their behaviour. To test these relationships, the study uses panel data analysis with a fixed-effects model to...Show moreWhy do some countries targeted by economic sanctions manage to preserve their stability, while others sink into crisis? This research explores the resilience mechanisms of states under international pressure, combining economic and political approaches. Through an empirical analysis covering a sample of countries sanctioned between 2005 and 2023, the thesis examines the impact of two key variables: trade openness and the type of political regime. The results show that countries with high trade openness tend to maintain higher GDP growth in the event of sanctions, although they may face higher inflation. Authoritarian regimes, on the other hand, appear to be more vulnerable in terms of economic growth, despite their political control mechanisms. These observations raise questions about whether economic sanctions are always a strong tool for forcing countries to change their behaviour. To test these relationships, the study uses panel data analysis with a fixed-effects model to control for unobservable country specificities. GDP growth and CPI inflation will be used as dependent variables. Other macroeconomic indicators are used as independent and control variables to assess the real impact of sanctions. This rigorous methodological approach provides a better understanding of how certain internal economic and political structures strengthen the ability of sanctioned states to absorb external shocks. By being able to circumvent restrictions, diversify economic partners and mobilise economic nationalism, the countries targeted by sanctions can limit the expected impact of these measures. By placing resilience at the heart of the analysis of sanctions, this study offers a critical reading of contemporary economic power dynamics and highlights the need to rethink the instruments of coercive diplomacy. In other words, the more resilient and flexible a country shows itself to be in these areas, the more it reduces the negative effect expected from economic sanctions.Show less

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The Political Economy of Sanctions: Regime Response and Trade Integration