Decrypting the Role of Regime Type in Proxy Warfare: A Cross-Case Comparison

The Syrian Civil War attracted multiple regional and international actors’ attention and became the theatre of parallel proxy operations. From a theoretical perspective, proxy relationships are commonly understood and analysed using Principal-Agent models, and are generally conceptualised as forms of delegation. This thesis builds on Abbott et al.’s Competence-Control framework and its conceptualisation of the control mode choices available to the governor (delegation, co-optation, orchestration, and trusteeship) by putting forward an alternative explanation for how states choose their control mode to govern their proxy relationship: that is regime type, as characterised by its values, institutions, and checks and balances. In order to highlight the impact of these variables, this thesis conducts a controlled comparison of the US-SDF, Russia-Wagner Group, and Iran-Hezbollah cases during the Syrian Civil War following a most similar case design. The analysis demonstrates that regime...Show moreThe Syrian Civil War attracted multiple regional and international actors’ attention and became the theatre of parallel proxy operations. From a theoretical perspective, proxy relationships are commonly understood and analysed using Principal-Agent models, and are generally conceptualised as forms of delegation. This thesis builds on Abbott et al.’s Competence-Control framework and its conceptualisation of the control mode choices available to the governor (delegation, co-optation, orchestration, and trusteeship) by putting forward an alternative explanation for how states choose their control mode to govern their proxy relationship: that is regime type, as characterised by its values, institutions, and checks and balances. In order to highlight the impact of these variables, this thesis conducts a controlled comparison of the US-SDF, Russia-Wagner Group, and Iran-Hezbollah cases during the Syrian Civil War following a most similar case design. The analysis demonstrates that regime type plays a key role in shaping ex ante control mode choices across all three cases, while bearing a mixed impact on ex post control mode choices. Overall, this thesis’ findings highlight the importance of regime values and institutions, primarily characterised by accountability mechanisms, in shaping democracies’ proxy relations. This thesis contributes to scholarship on proxy warfare and covert operations by demonstrating the role regime type can play in shaping states’ proxy operations and relations.Show less

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Decrypting the Role of Regime Type in Proxy Warfare: A Cross-Case Comparison