The Military Emissions Gap: Analysing the implications of militarization for the EU Green Deal

As Europe navigates simultaneous climate and security crises, a critical policy blind spot has emerged: the climate cost of militarization. This thesis examines to what extent military emissions and reporting practices among EU-NATO Member States challenge the net-zero target of the European Union’s Green Deal. The analysis reveals a military emissions reporting gap of at least 77% within Member States’ National Inventory Reports. This omission is not simply technical; it is rooted in institutional inertia and political dynamics that prioritize short-term over long-term security. Additionally, using NATO defence expenditure data and the Transnational Institute’s emissions methodology, the study estimates that under ReArm Europe, EU-NATO military emissions will reach 95.06 MtCO₂e annually by 2025, surpassing those of several medium-sized Member States. These findings suggest that there is a critical blind spot in current EU Green Deal emission reduction targets, as they structurally...Show moreAs Europe navigates simultaneous climate and security crises, a critical policy blind spot has emerged: the climate cost of militarization. This thesis examines to what extent military emissions and reporting practices among EU-NATO Member States challenge the net-zero target of the European Union’s Green Deal. The analysis reveals a military emissions reporting gap of at least 77% within Member States’ National Inventory Reports. This omission is not simply technical; it is rooted in institutional inertia and political dynamics that prioritize short-term over long-term security. Additionally, using NATO defence expenditure data and the Transnational Institute’s emissions methodology, the study estimates that under ReArm Europe, EU-NATO military emissions will reach 95.06 MtCO₂e annually by 2025, surpassing those of several medium-sized Member States. These findings suggest that there is a critical blind spot in current EU Green Deal emission reduction targets, as they structurally neglect a large part of military emissions. This research concludes that mandating transparent military emissions reporting is essential, not only for reaching net-zero, but also for ensuring the EU’s long-term strategic and environmental security.Show less

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The Military Emissions Gap: Analysing the implications of militarization for the EU Green Deal