How has Iran's nuclear strategy changed since the end of the JCPOA?

This thesis paper investigates the change of Iran's nuclear strategy following the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018. The subject holds significance withing the field of social sciences and Security Studies due to its implications for regional stability and international security. While extensive literature addresses nuclear proliferation in-depth, a research gap remains in understanding the interplay of broad international relations and the complete social context of Iran. The research question guiding this study is: How has Iran's nuclear strategy changed since the end of the JCPOA? This research applies a deductive, qualitative approach, using the process tracing method to explore causal mechanisms. It adopts Sagan's (1996) threemodel framework – security, domestic politics and norms- to analyse Iran's nuclear trajectory from 1957 to 2025. The findings demonstrate that Iran's nuclear strategy has shifted from “strategic patience” to a more assertive “lose-lose” approach. The...Show moreThis thesis paper investigates the change of Iran's nuclear strategy following the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018. The subject holds significance withing the field of social sciences and Security Studies due to its implications for regional stability and international security. While extensive literature addresses nuclear proliferation in-depth, a research gap remains in understanding the interplay of broad international relations and the complete social context of Iran. The research question guiding this study is: How has Iran's nuclear strategy changed since the end of the JCPOA? This research applies a deductive, qualitative approach, using the process tracing method to explore causal mechanisms. It adopts Sagan's (1996) threemodel framework – security, domestic politics and norms- to analyse Iran's nuclear trajectory from 1957 to 2025. The findings demonstrate that Iran's nuclear strategy has shifted from “strategic patience” to a more assertive “lose-lose” approach. The change reflects a convergence of increased threat perception, the influence of Iran's ruling elite, and the pursuit of ontological security. The results reject the null hypothesis and support the alternative hypothesis, proving Iran's nuclear policy has undergone strategic changes after the end of the JCPOA. By applying a multidisciplinary framework, this study contributes to a deeper understanding of the factors shaping nuclear policies, highlighting the need to consider identity and internal politics alongside conventional security concerns in international diplomacy.Show less

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How has Iran's nuclear strategy changed since the end of the JCPOA?