Diversifying Security in Southeast Asia: The Role of French Arm Transfers in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore’s Hedging Strategies

Southeast Asia’s militarisation over the past two decades has been driven by the intensifying strategic competition between China and the United States, as well as by the region’s responses to an increasingly uncertain security environment. Arms procurement in Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore is shaped by a combination of domestic security requirements, economic considerations and the pursuit of strategic influence. These states, each with distinct strategic alignments and levels of economic development, have pursued arms procurement and defence diplomacy as central pillars of their hedging strategies, actively expanding military capabilities and forging selective defence partnerships to minimise security risks without aligning unequivocally with any single great power. In this context, France has positioned itself as a “third way” in the Indo-Pacific, offering advanced defence technologies and capacity building with fewer political conditions than the U.S. or China. This thesis...Show moreSoutheast Asia’s militarisation over the past two decades has been driven by the intensifying strategic competition between China and the United States, as well as by the region’s responses to an increasingly uncertain security environment. Arms procurement in Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore is shaped by a combination of domestic security requirements, economic considerations and the pursuit of strategic influence. These states, each with distinct strategic alignments and levels of economic development, have pursued arms procurement and defence diplomacy as central pillars of their hedging strategies, actively expanding military capabilities and forging selective defence partnerships to minimise security risks without aligning unequivocally with any single great power. In this context, France has positioned itself as a “third way” in the Indo-Pacific, offering advanced defence technologies and capacity building with fewer political conditions than the U.S. or China. This thesis examines the extent to which the diversification of arms supply and strategic partnerships by Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore with France is driven by hedging motivations. The findings reveal that while hedging shapes arms procurement from France in all three cases, its intensity and strategic significance vary considerably. Singapore emerges as the most pronounced hedger, with defence expenditure far exceeding regional averages and a procurement strategy strongly oriented toward Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) capabilities. Indonesia displays the most dynamic evolution, increasing both the volume and technological sophistication of its French arms acquisitions, alongside expanded defence cooperation and technology transfers. Malaysia, however, exhibits the lightest form of hedging, with sporadic arms imports from France. All in all, France is valued by the three countries as a useful, though not decisive, option for diversification, offering advanced technologies and capacity building.Show less

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Diversifying Security in Southeast Asia: The Role of French Arm Transfers in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore’s Hedging Strategies