A comparative study on the effect of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine on European Defence Cooperation

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 marked a turning point in European security policy, prompting a renewed focus on defence cooperation and strategic autonomy within the European Union (EU). This thesis examines whether heightened perceptions of threat among EU citizens have led to increased engagement in collective defence initiatives. Using a mixedmethods approach, this study combines Eurobarometer survey data and participation records in Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) projects from 2017 to 2023. Two regression models are employed: the first examines how perceived threat influences public support for a common EU defence policy, while the second assesses whether this support translates into more substantial state-level cooperation. Findings show that although a higher perceived threat significantly increases public support for a common defence policy, this symbolic backing does not consistently correspond to increased participation in joint military initiatives....Show moreThe Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 marked a turning point in European security policy, prompting a renewed focus on defence cooperation and strategic autonomy within the European Union (EU). This thesis examines whether heightened perceptions of threat among EU citizens have led to increased engagement in collective defence initiatives. Using a mixedmethods approach, this study combines Eurobarometer survey data and participation records in Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) projects from 2017 to 2023. Two regression models are employed: the first examines how perceived threat influences public support for a common EU defence policy, while the second assesses whether this support translates into more substantial state-level cooperation. Findings show that although a higher perceived threat significantly increases public support for a common defence policy, this symbolic backing does not consistently correspond to increased participation in joint military initiatives. These results suggest a disconnect between public opinion and actual policy implementation, raising questions about the material limits of European strategic autonomy and the EU’s capacity to collaborate in times of geopolitical crisis. The analysis contributes to debates on the future of the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy, the role of NATO, and the potential for greater defence integration in response to evolving geopolitical threats.Show less

Leiden University Student Repository

Documents

In Collections

A comparative study on the effect of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine on European Defence Cooperation