Beyond Public Opinion: Political Determinants of Dutch Government Spending on CSDP Missions (2003–2024)

Under which conditions does the Dutch government respond to public opinion on European defence cooperation? This thesis finds that consistently high public support for defence cooperation among European member states has no statistically meaningful explanatory power for government spending on European crisis and security missions. Although public support has remained consistently high, government expenditure on EU missions falling under the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) has fluctuated substantially over time. Drawing on Eurobarometer data, party manifesto data, and Dutch defence budgets, this thesis uses longitudinal OLS regression analysis to assess how public support and domestic political conditions shape CSDP-related expenditure. The analysis shows that spending is shaped primarily by institutionalized political dynamics. While Euroscepticism and coalition complexity have a consistently negative effect on CSDP expenditure, issue salience and electoral timing show no...Show moreUnder which conditions does the Dutch government respond to public opinion on European defence cooperation? This thesis finds that consistently high public support for defence cooperation among European member states has no statistically meaningful explanatory power for government spending on European crisis and security missions. Although public support has remained consistently high, government expenditure on EU missions falling under the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) has fluctuated substantially over time. Drawing on Eurobarometer data, party manifesto data, and Dutch defence budgets, this thesis uses longitudinal OLS regression analysis to assess how public support and domestic political conditions shape CSDP-related expenditure. The analysis shows that spending is shaped primarily by institutionalized political dynamics. While Euroscepticism and coalition complexity have a consistently negative effect on CSDP expenditure, issue salience and electoral timing show no statistically significant effect. Meanwhile, ideological contestation over European integration and military affairs exerts divergent effects. The findings demonstrate that defence cooperation remains characterized by passive acceptance of the public rather than active mass-level pressure, while political elites are more responsive to fears of politicization and electoral punishment than broad public support. Thus, the future of European defence cooperation remains in the hands of political elites rather than their constituencies.Show less

Leiden University Student Repository

Documents

In Collections

Beyond Public Opinion: Political Determinants of Dutch Government Spending on CSDP Missions (2003–2024)