Leiden University Student Repository

de Dios Sauceda, Antonio (2026)

Salience Shocks and Social Cohesion: A Quasi-Experimental Analysis of the Impact of the Torre Pacheco Incident on Trust and Sociopolitical Attitudes in Spain

Master thesis | Public Administration (MSc)

This study examines the short-term impact of unexpected events affecting immigrants on generalized social trust and sociopolitical attitudes. Using the Torre Pacheco incident in Spain (July 2025), this study applies an unexpected event survey design (UESD) to establish causality between a negative external shock and changes in generalized trust, fiscal redistribution preferences, and satisfaction with public safety policies. The results indicate that, following the incident, general trust remained stable for the general population, except for VOX voters, whose trust levels declined significantly. In addition, the incident caused a notable decline in satisfaction with public safety policies among the general population and a shift toward more conservative fiscal attitudes particularly noticeable among moderate voters. These results show that localized events, when amplified through political instrumentalization and the media, can alter social cohesion.

Immigration, trust, incident, unexpected event, social cohesion

Author

de Dios Sauceda, Antonio

Faculty

Faculty of Governance and Global Affairs

Specialisation

Economics and Governance

Supervisors

Toshkov, D.D.

ECTS Credits

20

Evaluation

Recommended

Language

en