Authoritarianism in the Middle East after the Arab Spring: The role of security concerns and religiosity in shaping religious minorities’ regime-type preferences

Abstract Following the Arab Spring, authoritarian regimes have reconsolidated across the Middle East. Political actors emerging from this period reshaped threat perceptions, while regimes increasingly exploited societal divisions to reinforce their rule. Whereas pre–Arab Spring research identified education and economic status as key predictors of regime preferences, post–Arab Spring studies suggest that security concerns have become more central in explaining support for authoritarianism. This thesis examines whether security concerns predict support for authoritarianism among religious minorities and whether religiosity amplifies this relationship. Using survey data from seven countries in the Arab Opinion Index and a logistic regression analysis, the findings show that security concerns do not have a uniform relationship with support for authoritarianism, but among religious minorities, higher security concerns appear to increase authoritarian preferences. However, religiosity...Show moreAbstract Following the Arab Spring, authoritarian regimes have reconsolidated across the Middle East. Political actors emerging from this period reshaped threat perceptions, while regimes increasingly exploited societal divisions to reinforce their rule. Whereas pre–Arab Spring research identified education and economic status as key predictors of regime preferences, post–Arab Spring studies suggest that security concerns have become more central in explaining support for authoritarianism. This thesis examines whether security concerns predict support for authoritarianism among religious minorities and whether religiosity amplifies this relationship. Using survey data from seven countries in the Arab Opinion Index and a logistic regression analysis, the findings show that security concerns do not have a uniform relationship with support for authoritarianism, but among religious minorities, higher security concerns appear to increase authoritarian preferences. However, religiosity weakens this relation. This research demonstrates that predictors of authoritarian support operate in complex ways, but that a subgroup focus might help future research to better understand this complexity.Show less

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Authoritarianism in the Middle East after the Arab Spring: The role of security concerns and religiosity in shaping religious minorities’ regime-type preferences