Leiden University Student Repository

Assous, Yaëlle (2019)

Thucydides’s Trap: Exploring the Development of the United States-China Relations

Bachelor thesis | International Studies (BA)

Due to its important economic growth China has become, over the 21st century, an important actor on the international stage. Today, China is said to be undermining the American hegemon which has been leading the international system since the end of the Cold War. The Thucydides’s Trap analogy of Graham Allison predicts that a war between both powers is “more likely than not” (Allison 2017b). This thesis explores the existence of this trap and the implications for the relationship between the United States and China. For this purpose, this thesis performs a qualitative analysis through the in-depth review of Allison’s analogy and takes a deductive approach by testing it on post-World War II circumstances. The conclusions of this inquiry are then applied to the power shift between the United States and China. The analysis discloses that there is no such thing as a trap as argued by Allison. Moreover, the findings reveal that Allison overlooks the developments of the current world...Show moreDue to its important economic growth China has become, over the 21st century, an important actor on the international stage. Today, China is said to be undermining the American hegemon which has been leading the international system since the end of the Cold War. The Thucydides’s Trap analogy of Graham Allison predicts that a war between both powers is “more likely than not” (Allison 2017b). This thesis explores the existence of this trap and the implications for the relationship between the United States and China. For this purpose, this thesis performs a qualitative analysis through the in-depth review of Allison’s analogy and takes a deductive approach by testing it on post-World War II circumstances. The conclusions of this inquiry are then applied to the power shift between the United States and China. The analysis discloses that there is no such thing as a trap as argued by Allison. Moreover, the findings reveal that Allison overlooks the developments of the current world order which make the Thucydides’s Trap inapplicable to the power shift between the United States and China. Subsequently, Allison’s methodological tool is deemed to be analytically weak and the form of determinism arising from his analogy is conjectural.Show less

Thucydides’s Trap

United States

China

Graham Allison

War

International Relations

Author

Assous, Yaëlle

Faculty

Faculty of Humanities

Specialisation

BA International Studies

Supervisors

Thakur, Vineet

ECTS Credits

15

Language

en