The norm against genocide is at least as old as the term itself (Lemkin 1944). Yet for all the rhetoric and resolutions, genocide persists, often with impunity, and even without condemnation. This...Show moreThe norm against genocide is at least as old as the term itself (Lemkin 1944). Yet for all the rhetoric and resolutions, genocide persists, often with impunity, and even without condemnation. This study focuses explicitly on why some genocides elicit more international condemnation than others. Specifically, it analyses the reactions of the Organisation for Islamic Cooperation [OIC] to the ongoing genocides of the Rohingya minority in Myanmar and the Uyghur minority in China. While the OIC has unconditionally condemned the former, it has been silent concerning the latter. Exploring this discrepancy, I qualifiedly endorse the realist/rational choice explanation: where the costs of condemnation are high, states and organisations are less inclined to act on the norm against genocide. However, as the case of Turkey and its support for the Uyghurs suggests, this is not a complete explanation. Thus, I contend that the identity-motivation of ethnic solidarity represents a stronger, more robust counterweight to the realist pressures of economics and security, thus increasing the likelihood of condemnation.Show less
External events can significantly impact policymaking. This paper explores European Union policymaking processes surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine to understand better the influence of...Show moreExternal events can significantly impact policymaking. This paper explores European Union policymaking processes surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine to understand better the influence of such historic external moments in the EU context. More concretely the paper establishes whether the first year following the outbreak of the war created a critical juncture for EU policymaking on disinformation online. Furthermore, it analyses based on the findings, in more detail, either the impact of this critical juncture or the pathdependence on the EU’s policymaking processes in this policy area. Employing the concepts of critical juncture and path-dependence and by triangulating EU documents and interviews with EU policymakers, the findings suggest that no critical juncture occurred. Instead, this paper goes on to analyse “strategies and choices of political leaders” and “decision-making processes” in the EU and establishes how the policymaking processes following the outbreak of the invasion are best characterised by an activity shift from Covid-19 to the war. Moreover, the analysis indicates that EU policymaking processes continue to follow a path-dependence that has been created progressively since the establishment of EU policy on disinformation online, after the Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014.Show less
In a world where authoritarian regimes have become increasingly pervasive, digital surveillance has become a primary tool for maintaining control over citizens. Despite the public's awareness of...Show moreIn a world where authoritarian regimes have become increasingly pervasive, digital surveillance has become a primary tool for maintaining control over citizens. Despite the public's awareness of digital surveillance and its potential to limit freedom of expression and assembly, citizens of authoritarian regimes continue to organize and participate in public demonstrations in order to express their grievances. This paper therefore examines the extent to which digital surveillance influences citizens’ participation in public protests in authoritarian regimes, and how citizens cope with the limits imposed by such technologies. Combining existing scholarship with an examination of the case of China and the development of its ‘Golden Shield’, this study contends that digital surveillance succeeds in reducing public participation in demonstrations through creating a ‘chilling effect’ and causing widespread fear of physical retribution. It finds that citizens make use of a variety of strategies to mitigate the risk of digital surveillance through employing creative methods of censorship circumvention and evasion, although the longevity of such methods remains unclear. Process tracing is used to evaluate the key causal mechanisms associated with the developed “Digital Panopticon” theory. The paper concludes by discussing the wider socio-political implications of the findings.Show less
Can terrorist threats be forecasted in a systematic way? Which variables help to do so in the most accurate way? The present study examines the relative importance of features when building...Show moreCan terrorist threats be forecasted in a systematic way? Which variables help to do so in the most accurate way? The present study examines the relative importance of features when building forecasting models on terrorist threats. To do so, it draws on both academic literature and publications by counterterrorist practitioners. This study addresses three key gaps in existing research. Specifically, it allows for comparing the utility of different theoretical models to each other, it puts an explicit focus on machine learning-based forecasting with out-of-sample performance metrics, and it explicitly aims to incorporate knowledge from the practitioner sector, which is understandably less open about their work than the academic community but has still produced several insightful publications on the topic of forecasting terrorist threats. The outcomes of the analysis do not confirm the expectation that variables of interest to both academics and practitioners would have the highest predictive power. Rather, it is the population of a country that scores highest, followed by GDP, data on weapon flows into the country, and religious fragmentation in models with no features based on lagged versions of the outcome variable. In models including such variables, the lag of the terrorist attack occurrence consistently scores second highest, and these models consistently out-perform their counterparts missing these variables. The results obtained in this paper are arguably of most use to academic research, in that they add onto a so far relatively limited body of work on out-of-sample forecasting and provide insight into the relative predictive power of existing theoretical models. Practitioners may be more interested in the methodological approach taken in this piece, which can be of use to them when evaluating the priority list of warning indicators to take into consideration when assessing the severity of terrorist threats.Show less
As the liberal international order recedes, China has emerged as the principal challenger of global governance institutions that promote human rights. While China used to act as an ostensible norm...Show moreAs the liberal international order recedes, China has emerged as the principal challenger of global governance institutions that promote human rights. While China used to act as an ostensible norm taker in the sphere of human rights, it is increasingly asserting its own authoritarian human rights norms ‘with Chinese characteristics’ on the global stage. Using Chinese ‘tianxia’ theory and realism, this thesis endeavours to uncover how China is working to subvert international human rights governance with a case study of the United Nations Human Rights Council (HRC); the preeminent global forum for safeguarding human rights. A discourse analysis of China’s ‘counter- institutionalisation’ of the HRC, reveals a strategic effort to block criticism, prevent independent monitoring, and change established conceptions about the very meaning of human rights. The robustness of the HRC’s mandate thus appears to be under growing duress. How other states respond to China’s affront may determine the direction of global human rights governance for decades to come.Show less
This research examines the relationship between increased fire risk due to climate change and a state's engagement in the Union Civil Protection Mechanism's (UCPM) fire suppression efforts. Using...Show moreThis research examines the relationship between increased fire risk due to climate change and a state's engagement in the Union Civil Protection Mechanism's (UCPM) fire suppression efforts. Using the UCPM as a case study, it leverages quantitative data on fire risks and UCPM contributions and qualitative policy document analysis to understand this relationship. The study finds a positive link between heightened fire risk and amplified contributions to the UCPM. The outcomes emphasize the role of risk perception in global disaster cooperation and underline the need for efficacious risk communication in shared frameworks such as the UCPM. The study also advocates for exploring other variables like economic capability, geographic proximity and institutional factors. These findings have both theoretical and practical implications, enhancing comprehension of global cooperation dynamics and informing UCPM policy interventions.Show less
Populist leaders seem to rely on misinformation, fake news, and conspiracies to expand their power and keep their followers engaged and drown out condemnation from any opponents (Bergman, 2020;...Show morePopulist leaders seem to rely on misinformation, fake news, and conspiracies to expand their power and keep their followers engaged and drown out condemnation from any opponents (Bergman, 2020; Tucker et al 2017). There has been an established relationship between populism and conspiracies, but the literature is still learning exactly in which ways conspiracy theories are used by populist (Taggart, 2018). This thesis conducts a discourse analysis of two controversial American politics to determine in which ways they use conspiracies. It shows populists will utilize conspiracies if they have a disparaging relationship with nonpartisan experts. Once they decide to use conspiracies, they are able to do so to explain why ‘the people’ are not a majority, yet their will should still be considered absolute. And lastly, they are able to limit the amount of information sources they advocate to their followers, potentially isolating voters from truth or criticism.Show less
This thesis analyses the impact of different levels of favourability of immigrant integration policies on immigrant-receiving economies in OECD countries. Specifically, the effects brought to...Show moreThis thesis analyses the impact of different levels of favourability of immigrant integration policies on immigrant-receiving economies in OECD countries. Specifically, the effects brought to attention are employment, wealth, and public finances. Existing literature predominantly focusses on the impact of migration in general on destination economies and differ in opinion as to whether the relationship is positive or negative. Some literature already deepens the investigation into that relationship by including the aspect of immigrant integration policy, to which this thesis contributes by doing a quantitative data analysis. The impact of integration policies is assessed using three different models. The first model is a one-way multivariate analysis of variance. To the second and third model covariates have been added, which are respectively the number of recognized and rejected asylum applications. The analysis shows that states with higher levels of immigrant integration policy are better at ensuring positive relative native employment than states with lower levels of policy. The relationship between higher levels of integration policy and higher individual wealth is partially confirmed. The relationship between levels of integration policy and public finances needs to be researched further to draw conclusions about this.Show less
Among the groups of civilians caught up in civil war, internally displaced populations are often assumed to have little say about their courses of action. In particular, current theoretical...Show moreAmong the groups of civilians caught up in civil war, internally displaced populations are often assumed to have little say about their courses of action. In particular, current theoretical accounts of civilian agency in civil war expect that, when facing high levels of violence, civilians can choose between staying or leaving their communities, and only if they stay, they can choose to resist against armed groups. This thesis challenges that these choices are always so clear-cut. Relying on secondary sources, it investigates how populations in northern Guatemala combined displacement and resistance during the most violent period of the Guatemalan Civil War. More generally, this thesis proposes that short-time horizons (civilians’ belief that displacement will be temporary), harsh living conditions that require cooperation during the early moments of displacement, and shared negative perceptions towards one or more armed groups, might lead civilian population towards the organization of collective resistance while being internally displaced.Show less
This study contends for a social-psychological lens to understand why some feminist movements resort to violence. Literature from feminist peace studies has argued that women are most likely to be...Show moreThis study contends for a social-psychological lens to understand why some feminist movements resort to violence. Literature from feminist peace studies has argued that women are most likely to be peaceful, and scholarship in criminology suggests women are more likely to choose nonviolent coping behaviors. A large body of social movement literature has argued for rationalist approach to understanding the choice to utilize violence vis-a-vis nonviolence as a method of resistance. However, literature within the field of political science has not entirely explored underlying individual-level behaviors to explain why women within a feminist movement utilize violence as a method of resistance. Thus, introducing the research question: Why do some feminist movements resort to violence? Cases of feminist movements increasingly utilizing violence is puzzling because it contradicts arguments made by rationalist studies and feminist peace studies. I apply Robert Agnew’s General Strain Theory and argue that some feminist movements resort to violence because of a highly negative perception of the lack of governmental support to address a grievance in gender inequality, which generates negative emotions of anger and frustration that then leads to the likelihood of utilizing violent methods of resistance. I evaluate the argument using qualitative research in the single-case study of the Ni Una Menos (NUM) Movement in México. This study process traces data from semi-structured online interviews to analyze the causal mechanism of negative emotions through language utilized by activists of NUM to answer the research question.Show less
Mega sporting events (MSEs) like the Olympic Games and FIFA World Cup are seen by many as pathways for promoting human rights. While MSEs seek to promote ideals like peace and equality, there have...Show moreMega sporting events (MSEs) like the Olympic Games and FIFA World Cup are seen by many as pathways for promoting human rights. While MSEs seek to promote ideals like peace and equality, there have been numerous occasions where hosts of these events undermine the same values the MSEs strive to foster. This can be seen with the most recent edition of the FIFA World Cup in Qatar with the host accused of undermining human rights controversies related to migrant labor, women’s rights, and LGBTQ rights in the country. Given the phenomenon of state’s reacting differently to norm contestation, the central research question this project assesses is: How did democratic states respond to human rights norm contestations at the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar? Building on literature from the schools of human rights, protests, and state responses to norm contestation, this study uses democracy level as an independent variable see its effects on state behavior at the 2022 World Cup. Using a most-similar systems design, a QCA is conducted on Croatia and The Netherlands. This study provides mixed support for realist thought that finds that the closer a state is to being a full democracy, the more likely it is to respond to a norm contesting MSE host.Show less
Despite the scientifically proved inexistence of human races, racism yet exists as a result of the social construction and institutionalization of human races in societies. In the United States,...Show moreDespite the scientifically proved inexistence of human races, racism yet exists as a result of the social construction and institutionalization of human races in societies. In the United States, anti-Asian racism exists and is exceedingly problematic. At the same time, for the past thirty years United States power is relatively declining, and China is a rising power and changing the international world order. The Obama administration and the Trump administration dealt differently with the relative decline of United States power. In this paper, the United States government narrative of China and its effect on national anti-Asian racism in the United States is researched. First, existing literature on government policy tools, racism and narratives is critically analyzed. Thereafter, a narrative analysis is performed on the narratives used by the Obama administration and the Trump administration in a comparative case study. The results demonstrate that during the Trump presidency, the narrative of China was relatively more negative and anti-Asian racism levels were relatively higher. This implies that a more negative narrative of China causes more anti-Asian racism in the United States. Hence, this paper contributes to the academic field of political science by exposing the relation between governmental discursive power and citizen behavior.Show less
This paper moves beyond the democratization paradigm in studying post-communist political developments, and investigates how competitive elections affected ethnonationalism in Ukraine’s ethnically...Show moreThis paper moves beyond the democratization paradigm in studying post-communist political developments, and investigates how competitive elections affected ethnonationalism in Ukraine’s ethnically plural society (1991-2022). Based on Rabushka’s and Shepsle’s (1972) ethnic outbidding model, this paper hypothesizes that competitive elections incentivize candidates to use ethnonationalist appeals to maximally mobilize electoral support, which fuels centrifugal competition and ethnic polarization. This study has found that ethnolinguistic affiliations did structure electoral behavior in Ukraine. Most presidential election campaigns confirmed expectations based on the outbidding model. However, a comparison of the 2010 and 2004 elections challenges the outbidding theory, as the 2010 election campaign featured centripetal competition for the median voter. The existence of median voters amidst politicized ethnic divisions contradicts the outbidding model’s core assumption that middle-grounds between ethnic groups do not exist. Many voters, particularly among Russian-speaking ethnic Ukrainians, did find themselves in-between two ethnic groups, making centripetal competition not only possible, but even a rational election-winning strategy. Furthermore, contrarily to the rational-choice-based outbidding theory, political elites were able to learn from prior mistakes and became better at co-existing peacefully over time, despite fierce electoral competition. However, without candidates’ commitment not to let competition escalate, centrifugal competition is always around the corner.Show less
The rationale behind economic voting is simple: the citizen votes for the government if the economy is doing all right; otherwise, the vote is against (Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier 2000). However,...Show moreThe rationale behind economic voting is simple: the citizen votes for the government if the economy is doing all right; otherwise, the vote is against (Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier 2000). However, various studies have found cross-country and across-time variation regarding the intensity of economic voting (e.g., Paldam 1991; Anderson 1995; Duch and Stevenson 2008), leading an increasing number of scholars to discuss and test potential moderators of the economic vote equation (e.g., Anderson 2000; Duch and Stevenson 2008). Nonetheless, only a few authors have regarded the characteristics of the alternative to the underperforming incumbent, the opposition, as potential moderating factors (Anderson 2000; Maeda 2009; Ferrer 2023). Therefore, the goal of this thesis is to understand how the configuration of the parliamentary opposition, regarding its fragmentation and polarization, impacts its viability as an alternative and, consequently, the intensity of economic voting. Using data from 208 elections that took place in 29 European democracies between 1989 and 2021, I found that a more fragmented opposition actually increases the intensity of economic voting. However, I did not reach any statistically significant conclusions regarding the effect of the polarization of the opposition on the intensity of economic voting.Show less
