The field of International Relations (IR) is dominated by experts whose source of authority is opaque to the public. However, in 2005 Tetlock’s Expert Political Judgement revealed the inaccuracies...Show moreThe field of International Relations (IR) is dominated by experts whose source of authority is opaque to the public. However, in 2005 Tetlock’s Expert Political Judgement revealed the inaccuracies in expert predictions. As prediction is a defining feature of a maturing discipline, these results undermine the authority of IR experts. Tetlock found that accurate predictors “are moderates who factor conflicting considerations—in a flexible, weighted-averaging fashion—into their final judgments.” Six traits distinguish the cognitive style of these ‘foxes’ from their opposite, the ‘hedgehogs.’ This thesis converts these traits into a signal-analysis that can be used to determine the cognitive style of a piece of writing. This analysis is applied to a selection of six essays from the same source. The results generally corroborate Tetlock’s findings. Foxes make more modest predictions and avoid the pitfalls of overconfidence while hedgehogs make bolder claims which decreases their accuracy. It is also discovered that there is rigidity in the application of IR theory. Parsimonious applications of theory are favoured, which causes IR foxes to distance themselves from theory altogether. To restore experts’ IR authority, new theories need to be crafted which can integrate dissonant theories.Show less
Since 2012 the Japanese security environment witnessed rapid changes which in turn impacted its security policy. These changes in the security policy and environment impacted Okinawa directly....Show moreSince 2012 the Japanese security environment witnessed rapid changes which in turn impacted its security policy. These changes in the security policy and environment impacted Okinawa directly. Conservative newspapers emphasise the government's narrative about the importance of the presence of the US bases on Okinawa for deterrence. Liberal newspapers call for relocating the Futenma base outside Okinawa to reduce the burden on the island. Accordingly, this thesis investigates how the representation of the Okinawa base issue in Japan’s left and right-leaning newspapers has developed during the changes in the Japanese security environment and policy. This research uses critical discourse analysis to investigate the discourse on Okinawa in Japanese newspapers by analysing the depiction of the Okinawan response toward the Futenma base relocation. Then, it examines newspapers’ representations of the Okinawa issue in the context of the regional security threats. The results identify the differences and similarities between left- and right-leaning newspapers’ representation of the Okinawa issue. Despite the various representations of the Okinawa issue in right and left-leaning newspapers, the dominant security narrative shapes the discourse on the Okinawa issue. This study finds that left-leaning newspapers played a role in strengthening the conservative representation of the Okinawa issue. Hereby, the thesis may serve as a foundation for a broader study of representation discourse in newspapers.Show less
Strategic culture is a controversial concept that holds many possibilities. It can be understood as the context in which strategic ideas are created. This has gotten the attention of many scholars,...Show moreStrategic culture is a controversial concept that holds many possibilities. It can be understood as the context in which strategic ideas are created. This has gotten the attention of many scholars, who have applied strategic culture to understand the behaviors and policy choices of nations. However, strategic culture can be applied to more than just nations, such as organizations. U.S. Navy strategic culture is the focus of this thesis. The U.S. Navy has a unique and rich strategic culture that is rooted in history and shared experiences. As a result, Navy strategic culture can be used to interpret defense policy decisions in order to understand them from a new perspective. This thesis uses historical contextualism and Colin Gray’s understanding of strategic culture to analyze how the Navy interpreted the demands of the National Security Strategy of 1991 and repackaged them into the strategic document ...From the Sea. Two key findings can be established from a Navy strategic culture interpretation of the National Security Strategy. Firstly, U.S. Navy strategic culture interpreted the National Security Strategy’s focus on regional threats as a change in the maritime domain. This signaled the Navy to shift its focus from open ocean warfighting to littoral operations. Secondly, U.S. Navy strategic culture responded to the demand for a forward presence in regions by expanding its commitment to being an expeditionary force.Show less
This paper aims to address the issue of aid worker’s insecurity in conflict zones, considering that there is a dearth of research in the academic sphere despite the inherent duty to protect those...Show moreThis paper aims to address the issue of aid worker’s insecurity in conflict zones, considering that there is a dearth of research in the academic sphere despite the inherent duty to protect those who protect humanity. By means of a comparative case analysis, it will draw insights from three relevant conflicts which involved at least some level of insecurity for aid workers in relation to warring armed groups, namely the Taliban, the Houthis, and the FARC. Indeed, rebel groups are a major cause of violence towards aid workers but the motives behind these attacks are far from self-evident. Hence the research question: how can we explain the violence perpetrated against aid workers by the hand of armed groups in Afghanistan (2001-2021), Yemen (2014-2022) and Colombia (1997-2016)? This research will thus examine three case studies considering relevant theories of the field.Show less
Scholars commonly analyze Lebanon in terms of fragility or weakness. However, its history says that it is also a refugee country where multiple communities have settled after facing persecution....Show moreScholars commonly analyze Lebanon in terms of fragility or weakness. However, its history says that it is also a refugee country where multiple communities have settled after facing persecution. One of these communities is the Palestinian, which arrived in Lebanon in the mid-20th century. Over the years, Palestinian refugees have developed multiple and intertwined means of political agency in this country. This research aims to understand which have been these means, how they have been used, and what have been their potential effects on Lebanon’s domestic politics.Show less
Contrary to the predictions set out in traditional realist literature, small European states have made sizeable military contributions and demonstrated significant risk-willingness in US- and NATO...Show moreContrary to the predictions set out in traditional realist literature, small European states have made sizeable military contributions and demonstrated significant risk-willingness in US- and NATO-led missions in Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria. The small state literature has cautiously recognized status as an important explanatory factor of such disproportionate contributions. So far, however, it has hardly been explored how status motivations lead to contribution outcomes. Building on these recent advances, this thesis aims to deepen the understanding of the drivers behind status-seeking. Using the case of the Netherlands’ contribution to ISAF, Task Force Uruzgan (2006-2010), this research demonstrates how small state contributions can be the result of an assessment of potential non-material gains in the form of reputation and status, as well as concerns surrounding the loss of these benefits. This differs from current knowledge, as it suggests that small states are driven by more than just ‘positive’ status incitements.Show less
Over the last two decades, we have observed a surge in support for populist parties. As populism is known to thrive on crisis, the current COVID-19 pandemic provides an interesting case to study...Show moreOver the last two decades, we have observed a surge in support for populist parties. As populism is known to thrive on crisis, the current COVID-19 pandemic provides an interesting case to study its nature. This thesis tests whether the three-folded paradox of populism observed in the U.S. by Rogers Brubaker (2020) holds for the Netherlands and Germany, by means of a comparative discourse analysis. This analysis covers the Twitter discourse of Dutch politicians Geert Wilders and Thierry Baudet, and the German populist party, Alternative für Deutschland, during the first wave of COVID-19. This thesis thereby enters the conceptual debate on populism, arguing the observed discourse to not convey a consistent ideology, but instead to adhere to certain stylistic elements that could be qualified as characteristic of a populist political style. Moreover, the comparative analysis will shed light on whether the rise of populism can be classified as a global, perhaps ideological phenomenon, or whether national characteristics also play a role. Throughout this thesis, the role and importance of the contemporary media landscape with its various online channels for the mobilisation of contemporary populists are taken into consideration. As a surge in populist rhetoric could further uproot the established global political landscape, understanding this phenomenon is of high importance for the future of international relations.Show less
