While the 2014 annexation of Crimea was a complete success for Russia, Russia’s involvement in the Donbas conflict only a month later proved a failure despite the use of similar tactics. Previous...Show moreWhile the 2014 annexation of Crimea was a complete success for Russia, Russia’s involvement in the Donbas conflict only a month later proved a failure despite the use of similar tactics. Previous academic discourse has alluded to these kinds of tactics, here presented as ‘ambiguous warfare’ operations, being implemented in future conflicts. Yet, little attention has been awarded to which factors facilitate successful implementations of ambiguous warfare. The case study presented in this research has set out to determine if the conditions that facilitated ambiguous warfare’s success in Crimea were present in the Donbas. It is additionally explored which differences in the two operations denied Russia a favourable outcome in the Donbas. Results show that four out of six success conditions for ambiguous warfare were not present in the Donbas. Additionally, ambiguous warfare in the Donbas was hindered by ill-suited strategic goals for such operations and insufficient planning. The findings suggest that favorable conditions for ambiguous warfare rarely occur, with the Donbas conflict producing no lasting success for Russia. Yet, states should increase their resilience against ambiguous warfare threats, as such operations may remain appealing options for Russia. This research paper complements the academic understanding of ambiguous warfare.Show less
