This thesis aims to determine if Russia’s use of the Wagner Group during the War in Ukraine is capable of changing the existing norms of Private Military Security Company [PMSC] use. By analysing...Show moreThis thesis aims to determine if Russia’s use of the Wagner Group during the War in Ukraine is capable of changing the existing norms of Private Military Security Company [PMSC] use. By analysing two sub-questions, regarding the strategic effect of Russia’s norm transgression and the extent to which Russia’s behavior encourages emulation by other states, the robustness of the prevailing norm is determined. By researching the relationship between Russia’s use of the Wagner Group and norm robustness, the academic gap regarding the Wagner Group’s effect on the norm is addressed which has important societal implications regarding the changing nature of warfare. Through a multi-source content analysis on two moments during the War, the Battle of Bakhmut and Fall of Soledar, a variety of sources were analysed to answer the two sub-questions. The results indicate that Russia is an outsider to the norm and developed a rejective strategic effect. The Wagner Group has specific characteristics which makes their use attractive for states, however, the international response from the West makes emulation unlikely for this group of states. This reveals that there is a possibility that non- western states will emulate Russia’s behaviour to solidify their opposing position to the West.Show less
This paper examines the various configurations of conditions that lead to the occurrence of war crimes by the Wagner Group in its operations abroad. Current research on this topic has tended to...Show moreThis paper examines the various configurations of conditions that lead to the occurrence of war crimes by the Wagner Group in its operations abroad. Current research on this topic has tended to focus on the personality types of the perpetrators and the group culture or dynamic of private military companies (PMC), this research, however, focuses more on socio-political and economic factors. The four key contributing conditions selected for this study are: the complicity with the host government, economic motivations, the multiplicity of armed groups in the country, and the dehumanisation of the victims. Using data from non-governmental organisation (NGO) reports, news articles and academic articles, a Qualitative Content Analysis (QCA) was applied to 10 countries in which the Wagner Group has been active, including six countries where war crimes were committed, and four where war crimes were not committed. The QCA found that the following configurations; G*E*D, E*m*D and g*e*M*D led to the occurrence of war crimes; and two instances of these were exemplified by the cases of the Central African Republic and Libya. These results appear to be applicable to other PMCs, with the dehumanisation of the victims appearing to be the only necessary condition, whereas the multiplicity of armed groups was found to be the less reliable condition, highlighting the need for future research.Show less
Somalia and Nigeria have been struggling economically and politically in the past decades, mainly due to the rise of the insurgent groups Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram. The counterinsurgency efforts by...Show moreSomalia and Nigeria have been struggling economically and politically in the past decades, mainly due to the rise of the insurgent groups Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram. The counterinsurgency efforts by both the Somali and the Nigerian government have been a topic of debate since the start of the conflict, discussing recommendations and best practices to bring back peace and prosperity in the region. This study, however, aimed to shift this debate to discuss the effectiveness of their counterinsurgency strategies, while focusing heavily on context. Thus, analyzing the contextual factors of Somalia and Nigeria through several dimensions has resulted in an understanding of how the context influences the outcome. These dimensions are economics, domestic politics and international politics. The findings of this research show that Somalia lacks the funds, political willingness and functioning governmental institutions to effectively engage in non-military counterinsurgency. However, due to international assistance, their military efforts to fight Al-Shabaab have been more successful. On the other hand, Nigeria has a stronger economy and more organized government, but faces the issue of unhappiness among the population leading to a rise in insurgency recruitment. Developmental and humanitarian aid provided by the international community can help the country in the long-term, as long as the unrest within the population is resolved.Show less
Illegal military intervention that is considered legitimate is harmful to the international community and its laws and enforcement systems. Yet the occurrence of such events has increased over the...Show moreIllegal military intervention that is considered legitimate is harmful to the international community and its laws and enforcement systems. Yet the occurrence of such events has increased over the years and is not expected to drop. Therefore, this study examines what stateidentity elements lead to states supporting such illegal intervention committed by a third state. A crisp set qualitative comparative analysis has been conducted in which combinations of four conditions are investigated, which are: prosperity, right-wing ideology, corruption, and military capabilities. These conditions affect the extent to which states have an interventionist approach and have been applied to the case study of the Iraq war of 2003. One of the main findings is that the conjunction of right-wing political ideology and relatively high levels of corruption resulted in states considering the Iraq invasion legitimate. Another remarkable finding is that this study could not find a combination of solutions that can account for all cases of support for illegal military intervention.Show less
While the 2014 annexation of Crimea was a complete success for Russia, Russia’s involvement in the Donbas conflict only a month later proved a failure despite the use of similar tactics. Previous...Show moreWhile the 2014 annexation of Crimea was a complete success for Russia, Russia’s involvement in the Donbas conflict only a month later proved a failure despite the use of similar tactics. Previous academic discourse has alluded to these kinds of tactics, here presented as ‘ambiguous warfare’ operations, being implemented in future conflicts. Yet, little attention has been awarded to which factors facilitate successful implementations of ambiguous warfare. The case study presented in this research has set out to determine if the conditions that facilitated ambiguous warfare’s success in Crimea were present in the Donbas. It is additionally explored which differences in the two operations denied Russia a favourable outcome in the Donbas. Results show that four out of six success conditions for ambiguous warfare were not present in the Donbas. Additionally, ambiguous warfare in the Donbas was hindered by ill-suited strategic goals for such operations and insufficient planning. The findings suggest that favorable conditions for ambiguous warfare rarely occur, with the Donbas conflict producing no lasting success for Russia. Yet, states should increase their resilience against ambiguous warfare threats, as such operations may remain appealing options for Russia. This research paper complements the academic understanding of ambiguous warfare.Show less
The conflict between Nigeria and the Boko Haram insurgency has caused a lot of suffering in North-East Nigeria. Additionally, food, water, and refugee crises are created in the region as a result...Show moreThe conflict between Nigeria and the Boko Haram insurgency has caused a lot of suffering in North-East Nigeria. Additionally, food, water, and refugee crises are created in the region as a result of the conflict. Scholars have written about the dynamics of the Boko Haram insurgency and the counterinsurgency operations of the Nigerian forces. From the counterinsurgency point of view much has been written related to the different actors or human rights. The geographical perspective on counterinsurgency has not been touched upon much and this is what will be done in this study. In this study the research question: How can we explain the geostrategy of Nigeria in its conflict with Boko Haram? This will be attempted via a case study analysis on the Nigerian counterinsurgency operations in combination with a focus on the natural resources oil and water. Findings suggest that the presence of these resources allow for a geostrategic explanation of Nigeria in the conflict. Additionally, the study illustrates the influence water could have when combined with a counterinsurgency framework. These findings are relevant in widening of theShow less
This paper examined eight cases of counterinsurgency warfare to uncover conditions that lead to the use or non-use of Private Military Companies in military conflict by minor powers. This was done...Show moreThis paper examined eight cases of counterinsurgency warfare to uncover conditions that lead to the use or non-use of Private Military Companies in military conflict by minor powers. This was done through the use of a crisp-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis, which combines aspects of both quantitative as well as qualitative approaches. The conditions that were identified as having an impact on PMC involvement are: danger to the political leadership due to continuation of the conflict, quality of equipment and training soldiers receive, and whether the conflict has reached a stalemate. In the universe of cases presented in this paper the most important factor for predicting the use or non-use of PMC’s seems to be whether the political leadership is in danger due to the continuation of the conflict. This is highlighted through case studies of the Sierra Leone Civil War and the Bougainville Conflict. In Sierra Leone, the capital was surrounded which led to the use of PMC’s. In Papua New Guinea the prime minister felt politically threatened, leading to him contacting a PMC. However, the rest of the government and army were not directly threatened by the conflict and thus condemned the use of this PMC, leading to the cancellation of the contract.Show less
Countering an insurgency can be approached in different ways: either by focusing efforts on the population, or on the insurgents themselves (the enemy). According to research, population-centric...Show moreCountering an insurgency can be approached in different ways: either by focusing efforts on the population, or on the insurgents themselves (the enemy). According to research, population-centric approaches to counterinsurgency are considered to be more preferable, more humane and more successful than enemy-centric approaches. However, the opposite seems to be the case in Syria, where the government is successfully carrying out an enemy-centric counterinsurgency operation. This thesis studied the counterinsurgency operation of the Syrian regime by answering the research question: How did the Syrian regime successfully carry out an enemy-centric counterinsurgency operation between 2015 and 2017? To answer the research question, a thematic analysis, grounded in case study analysis, was conducted, based on two characteristics of enemy-centric counterinsurgency: mass violence and population control measures. It argues that the Syrian regime implemented a strategy of “surrender or die”, and used a combination of mass violence and population control measures to successfully force civilians into surrender, retake territory and defeat opposition forces. These outcomes show that, under certain circumstances, enemy-centric counterinsurgency can be used successfully, even though existing literature seems to suggest otherwise. Recommendations for future research are to examine whether an enemy-centric approach to counterinsurgency also contributes to the development of durable stability and effective governance by a legitimate government.Show less
In the post 9/11-era, the Dutch government has made extensive use of special operations forces (SOF), predominantly in Afghanistan. While the importance and role of SOF continue to expand, the use...Show moreIn the post 9/11-era, the Dutch government has made extensive use of special operations forces (SOF), predominantly in Afghanistan. While the importance and role of SOF continue to expand, the use of and discourse on the deployment of Dutch SOF has received little academic attention. This thesis provides new insight into the discourse on Dutch SOF operations in Afghanistan. A discourse analysis was conducted on government discourse vis-à-vis operational accounts. Consequently, a comparative analysis was conducted to establish if, and to what extent government discourse and operational accounts have collided. This thesis argues that during the first analysed deployment, from 2006 onwards, the mission set largely aligned with operational accounts. However, this mission set did not correspond with the expertise of a SOF unit, which led to dissatisfaction among the commandos. During the second analysed deployment, from 2018 onwards, government publications provided more clarity on the nature of the mission, although some ambiguity concerning combat aspects remained. Future research is recommended on other operational phases of Dutch SOF.Show less
The war in Yemen and the involvement of Saudi Arabia receive little academic and societal attention. This thesis sought to analyze the strategies of Saudi Arabia by comparing them to the well...Show moreThe war in Yemen and the involvement of Saudi Arabia receive little academic and societal attention. This thesis sought to analyze the strategies of Saudi Arabia by comparing them to the well-documented American intervention in Afghanistan. This results in the following research question: to what extent are Saudi Arabia in Yemen and the US in Afghanistan strategic in their approach to successful counterinsurgency? Based on five basic principles of COIN, the research found that both states were not strategic in their respective interventions.Show less
Between 2006 and 2010 Dutch military personnel conducted a counterinsurgency (COIN) campaign in Uruzgan, Afghanistan. The Taliban reseized power in Afghanistan after the retreat of international...Show moreBetween 2006 and 2010 Dutch military personnel conducted a counterinsurgency (COIN) campaign in Uruzgan, Afghanistan. The Taliban reseized power in Afghanistan after the retreat of international troops, raising the question whether the campaign had been successful. This paper aims to study whether Dutch military personnel felt adequately prepared to conduct a COIN-operation in Afghanistan, leading to the research question: to what extent did officers of the Dutch armed forces feel prepared for the different elements of COIN for their deployment to Afghanistan during the ISAF-campaign? First, the different elements of COIN have been identified. These are: security, politics, economics and culture. Thereafter, 8 Dutch (ex-) officers have been on how they experienced their preparation. The preparation for security was very in-depth and sufficient. The preparation for the cultural element was deemed as basic and influenced the feeling of preparedness for the political and economic aspects. A fifth element has been added after the analysis. This organisational element focused on organisational decisions that affected the interviewees’ feeling of preparedness. Overall, the officers felt prepared enough to complete their tasks in Afghanistan, more focus on local culture could have benefited the effectiveness of the campaign. The academic implication of this study is that culture should be added to the pillars of COIN. More practical implications refer to the Dutch strategy, which is not in line with the pre-deployment preparation of personnel. A policy recommendation following this study is to revise pre-deployment training for COIN-missions similar to the one in Uruzgan.Show less
Sun Tzu’s Art of War, written in the 5th century BC, is widely considered one of the most important guides to warfare and military strategy ever written. In order to evaluate this book’s...Show moreSun Tzu’s Art of War, written in the 5th century BC, is widely considered one of the most important guides to warfare and military strategy ever written. In order to evaluate this book’s contemporary relevance to the field of strategic studies, this thesis sought to apply the Art of War’s teachings to the modern-day case study of the United States’ (US) war in Afghanistan. Criticisms of the US’s strategy in this conflict are widespread. By applying Sun Tzu’s knowledge to this case study, valuable insights are gained as to the exact nature of the US’s mistakes in Afghanistan. This thesis concludes that the US in Afghanistan should have been more mindful of preventing civilian casualties, that domestic US politics interfered detrimentally in military affairs, that the Taliban were severely underestimated as an enemy, and that the US should have taken measures to prevent the war from lasting as long as it did. Understanding the lessons offered by the Art of War on the Afghanistan case study can lead to more effective military strategy in future conflicts.Show less
