This research provides an empirical analysis of the latest international development aid strategy of the European Commission, namely, the Global Gateway. This new approach to the European Union’s ...Show moreThis research provides an empirical analysis of the latest international development aid strategy of the European Commission, namely, the Global Gateway. This new approach to the European Union’s (EU) development policy aims at developing equal partnerships through the correction of asymmetries of power as well as environmental and social inequalities. It notably puts a specific emphasis on the inclusion of the civil society in Global Gateway’s partnerships. The underlying empowerment of partner countries and the civil society through ‘local ownership’ and the objectives of the Global Gateway echo Manners’ notion of Normative Power Europe (NPE). This research investigates the synergies between the strategy and an NPE by asking: How can the inclusion of the civil society in the Global Gateway strategy contribute to a Normative Power Europe? It identifies how the participation of the civil society to avoid neo-colonial relations in the EU-Togo partnership can fulfil the three prerequisites of an NPE: i.e. an ‘action in concert’; a ‘simultaneous awareness’ and; a ‘non-adversarial relation’. Early studies suggest that the Global Gateway’s discourses replicate neo-colonial and prescriptive diffusion of norms. But these findings rely on publicly available documents from the European Commission, adopts a Eurocentric view of the strategy and don’t look at its practical application. This research takes these critics duly into account by analysing through an interpretative approach empirical material from both the EU and Togo, panel discussions of EU and partners’ leaders and semi-structured interviews with EU policy makers. Findings stress the centrality of policy makers’ intentions and visions vis-à-vis the Global Gateway. The instrumentalization of the strategy for economic and geopolitical purposes directly undermines the empowerment of EU partners despite effective civil society inclusion. If the EU were to be a normative power through the inclusion of civil society in the Global Gateway, it should make of development the principal objective of partnerships over trade and geopolitics.Show less
This thesis investigates the effects of government satisfaction and political trust on public attitudes towards the ‘social investment’ state in Italy. In the thirty years following the Second...Show moreThis thesis investigates the effects of government satisfaction and political trust on public attitudes towards the ‘social investment’ state in Italy. In the thirty years following the Second World War, advanced industrial economies established the welfare state to protect (male) breadwinners against income loss due to old age, disability, sickness, or unemployment. However, since the post-war years, the structure of social risks has changed dramatically. The dilemmas of modern societies comprise long-term unemployment, in-work poverty, precarious jobs, single parenthood, and a growing difficulty in reconciling work and family life. These challenges have called for a recalibration of the traditional welfare state towards a ‘social investment’ model focused on the generation, preservation, and mobilisation of human capital. However, welfare state recalibration remains, for some countries more than others, an arduous challenge. Welfare state institutions successfully adapted to the emergence of new social risks in the Nordic countries, but not in Southern Europe, still lagging behind. Why has it been so difficult for some welfare states to implement future-oriented strategies? Under which conditions would citizens be willing to accept welfare state modernisation based on social investment measures? Focusing on the Italian case, this thesis argues that a recalibration towards future-oriented reforms is complicated by the low levels of political trust that characterise the Italian welfare regime. Relying on micro-level data from the eight wave of the European Social Survey (ESS), the empirical analysis investigates the effects of governmental trust and satisfaction on the willingness of Italian citizens to support recalibration towards social investment, financed through retrenchment of existing social benefits or tax hikes. The evidence confirms that trust and satisfaction encourage the disposition of Italians to support investment-based reforms that are costly in action at present, with uncertain future outcomes. Overall, these findings suggest that governments’ trustworthiness broadens our understanding of the political viability of future-oriented policymaking under financially constrained scenarios.Show less
This thesis delves into the intricate landscape of (green) industrial policies, focusing on Tata Steel Nederland (TSN) and its governance within the Netherlands from 2009 to 2023. Against the...Show moreThis thesis delves into the intricate landscape of (green) industrial policies, focusing on Tata Steel Nederland (TSN) and its governance within the Netherlands from 2009 to 2023. Against the backdrop of global sustainability imperatives, the study navigates the evolving paradigm of industrial policies in response to climate challenges. As the manufacturing sector, particularly steel production, stands pivotal in achieving emission reduction targets, the research unravels the change in governmental rhetoric and policy outcomes towards TSN. This thesis addresses change surrounding TSN governance, injecting agency into Historical Institutionalism (HI) analysis and considers three pressures — expert knowledge, mobilisation, and salience — collectively to address existing research gaps. HI provides the theoretical lens, supported by agency to address the theory’s limitations. The directional flow of pressures, from the communicative to the coordinative policy sphere, elucidates the role of actors in inducing institutional changes. A process-tracing case study methodology is employed and the research analyses governmental documents, health reports, news articles, and interviews to trace the unfolding changes in TSN's governance. The empirical findings show a departure from historical patterns, marked by the maatwerkafspraken, as well as increased monitoring and enforcement mechanisms to ensure the company adheres to the new green industrial vision of the Netherlands. The findings indicate a necessity of coexisting pressures—expert knowledge, mobilisation, and salience—to trigger change. The absence of any one pressure prompts dynamic equilibrium in favour of the powerful interests of TSN, emphasising the need for high pressure in the communicative policy sphere.Show less
Statistical matching is a technique which can be applied when one wants to investigate the joint relationship between two variables that are observed in different datasets, using one or more...Show moreStatistical matching is a technique which can be applied when one wants to investigate the joint relationship between two variables that are observed in different datasets, using one or more variables that overlap in both datasets. This joint relationship cannot be estimated without relying on assumptions or additional data. Classically, statistical matching is based on the Conditional Independence Assumption (CIA) which asserts the non-overlapping variables to be independent given the overlapping variable. This assumption is inflexible, untestable and often does not hold. The current project proposes to use an approach based on the Instrumental Variable Assumption (IVA). An instrumental variable is a variable that, given the value of some mediating variable, has no effect on some outcome variable. In the context of statistical matching this gives rise to three scenarios: the mediating variable overlaps, the outcome variable overlaps, or the instrumental variable overlaps. The IVA approach is more flexible than the CIA approach. This is because the IVA approach does not make any assumptions on which variable is the overlapping variable, whereas the CIA always conditions on the overlapping variable. The aims of the current study were twofold: 1) how does the IVA approach perform when the assumption is violated to various degrees and 2) how does the IVA approach compare to the CIA approach. To answer these questions, a simulation study was performed. For each scenario, joint probabilities of the non-overlapping variables were estimated under both the IVA and the CIA in populations which violate the IVA to various degrees. Measures for the bias, accuracy and precision were estimated and compared. The results indicate that the IVA approach is moderately robust against slight violations of the assumption. When the IVA is not violated, estimations are unbiased and for all matching scenarios the method outperforms the CIA. When the IVA is violated it is advisable to rely on the CIA, since results of the current simulation study suggest the CIA to be more robust against violations in general.Show less
In dit onderzoek wordt het effect van de mate van het vertrouwen in de overheid op verschillende burgerparticipatievormen onderzocht. Uit het onderzoek blijkt dat er een sterk positief effect is...Show moreIn dit onderzoek wordt het effect van de mate van het vertrouwen in de overheid op verschillende burgerparticipatievormen onderzocht. Uit het onderzoek blijkt dat er een sterk positief effect is van het vertrouwen in de overheid op het stemmen tijdens nationale en lokale verkiezingen. Met betrekking tot het meedoen aan demonstraties en het ondertekenen van petities is er geen duidelijk effect zichtbaar.Show less
This study analyses the role of issue saliency in the relationship between the retrenchment of the welfare state and the electoral outcomes of government parties in the next election. The role of...Show moreThis study analyses the role of issue saliency in the relationship between the retrenchment of the welfare state and the electoral outcomes of government parties in the next election. The role of issue saliency is tested by a statistical analysis across 25 European countries between 2001-2021. Three welfare state indicators, healthcare, pensions and unemployment, are used to see if their effect on electoral outcomes changes when they are more or less salient. The analysis shows a correlation between issue saliency and a positive effect of retrenchment on electoral outcome. Situations of budget constraints can explain the positive effects of electoral outcomes on electoral outcomes. We conclude that issue saliency is an accelerator for the effect the welfare state has on electoral results. Furthermore, we can conclude that budget constraints are an explanatory factor in why retrenchment measures positively affect electoral outcomes.Show less
This thesis investigates the daily life of an early medieval community in Central Italy by focusing on the skeletal collection (n = 66) from the ancient site of Satricum dating between the 9th and...Show moreThis thesis investigates the daily life of an early medieval community in Central Italy by focusing on the skeletal collection (n = 66) from the ancient site of Satricum dating between the 9th and 11th century AD, to advance our understanding of this everchanging period. The research employs the study of paleopathology, with a focus on osteoarthritis (OA), osteochondritis dissecans (OD), and periosteal new bone growth (PNB). The skeletal analyses revealed a high prevalence of joint degeneration, particularly in the spine, hip, shoulder, and elbow, while also PNB was recorded in relatively high numbers. The findings suggest that Satricum was a small, self-reliant community engaged in agricultural practices with ongoing physiological stressors. However, the presence of OA might have been influenced by both activity and genetic predisposition due to the long duration of the community settling in Satricum. The study also explored the impact of sex and age. The osteological assessment indicated a potential surplus of males, aligning with demographic patterns of early medieval times, while the identified females showed no distinctive activity markers, prompting further investigation into the "missing women" concept of the Middle Ages. The presence of only five subadults also raised questions about community beliefs, suggesting a potential societal distinction for individuals under the age of seven since no social separation was recognized between the adults and juveniles over that age. Furthermore, the funerary practices exhibited potential indicators of a Christian belief system, such as burial orientation and the absence of grave goods. The reuse of a Roman villa with a possible apsis also hinted at the presence of an ecclesial building. Comparisons with other Central Italian sites of the same period (Albano, Santa Severa, and Colonna) highlighted pathological and demographic commonalities. Therefore, in the broader context, this research contributes to existing knowledge by confirming scholar’s theories about life in rural medieval Central Italy. Finally, this study emphasizes the significance of investigating previously unstudied skeletal collections because these findings not only deepen our understanding of Satricum but also provide a foundation for future research, encouraging diverse approaches to further unravel the complexities of this ancient community.Show less
Since the formation of the contemporary Northern-Spanish autonomic community of Cantabria in 1981 the Iron Age has become increasingly important for its regional identity, symbolically embedded in,...Show moreSince the formation of the contemporary Northern-Spanish autonomic community of Cantabria in 1981 the Iron Age has become increasingly important for its regional identity, symbolically embedded in, for example, its name and flag. Although this in itself can be viewed as problematic, it also fuelled more archaeological investigations into Iron Age Cantabria. These investigations have mainly been focused on Iron Age hillforts of which currently approximately fourty-three (43) can be found throughout the autonomic community. The relatively late development of this field of study is one of the reasons why this number is significantly lower than the other northern Spanish autonomic communities of Asturias and Galicia. Simultaneously, Eucalyptus plantations have become the dominant form of forestation covering approximately 8% of total ground surface and forming 19% of the total amount of forests in Cantabria. This vegetation cover is found predominantly in the coastal region, where few of the identified Iron Age hillforts are found and where the plantations encroach on identified hillforts, making identification of new hillforts more difficult. While new digital tools and data for cultural resource management have become available, such as Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), their usage have been limited in this region. To address this issue the research poses the question: ‘How can available methods and tools of archaeological prospection and cultural heritage management be used in an integrated workflow to find, map and preserve Iron Age hillforts under Eucalyptus plantations in Cantabria?’. The proposed integrated workflow consists of narrowing down suitable locations for Iron Age hillforts through object-based predictive modelling (OBPM) and subsequently remote prospection of those locations to identify potential features associated with archaeological sites. To test this approach it has been put into practice. The proposed workflow proved effective, but has also shown limitations. The parameters chosen are most-likely not solely relevant for Iron Age hillforts, consisting out of Geomorophon, incoming visibility-index and out-going visibility index. Also the research focus on Eucalyptus plantations showed a variability of noise in the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) for locations under Eucalyptus plantations, sometimes impeding readability of those areas. Nevertheless, the use of Sky View Factor (SVF) and the sufficiently narrowed down study area still proved effective in finding and documenting possible archaeological features, of which fifty (50) different locations have been identified with a variation of characteristics, all adhering to the set parameters. This suggests that the proposed integrated workflow is currently an effective tool in the finding, mapping and preserving archaeological sites near or encroached by Eucalyptus plantations.Show less
Social media has become an integral component of public agencies and digital diplomacy. Prior scholars have emphasised the significance of social media in International relations (IR), discussing...Show moreSocial media has become an integral component of public agencies and digital diplomacy. Prior scholars have emphasised the significance of social media in International relations (IR), discussing its advantages and difficulties. Nevertheless, in terms of public administration, there is a gap in their management, namely, in understanding how to use different platforms and the significance of social media content in engaging with the public. This research delves into the field of digital Diplomacy, examining the strategic use of social media content by the European Union’s diplomatic missions based in Athens, focusing on engagement with the public. The mixed-method study examined how diplomatic missions use social media content to engage with the public by analyzing original posts on Twitter/X and Facebook and conducting semi-structured interviews with experts and diplomats from EU Ministries of Foreign Affairs (MFAs) and embassies. The findings revealed that the EU embassies tend to employ posts that promote the countries’ image and interests’ indicators of Symbolic representation. In addition,they demonstrate a preference for Transparency by regularly sharing content that aligns with the policies, daily agenda and activity of the MFAs or embassies. The analysis using the Engagement Index (EI) results is noteworthy as it signifies an enhanced public connection with Coproduction content. Finally, the study reveals the strategic use of the platforms and the content for effective public engagement. Future researchers can delve into new directions by exploring other platforms or focusing on public reaction via sentimental analysis. In summary, this research emphasizes the importance of social media in diplomatic missions' external communication and advances the field by implementing the framework in digital diplomacy, particularly in the EU.Show less
The behavioral theory of the firm lacks a comprehensive understanding of issue prioritization, particularly when multiple issues are performing below aspiration levels, or resources are limited....Show moreThe behavioral theory of the firm lacks a comprehensive understanding of issue prioritization, particularly when multiple issues are performing below aspiration levels, or resources are limited. This study investigates the prioritization of eGovernment initiatives, considering budget constraints and the emphasis on historical versus social aspiration levels. Two theoretical expectations were developed: 1) the prioritization of historical versus social aspiration levels, and 2) the prioritization of eGovernment initiatives under budget constraints. Semi-structured interviews with 9 public officials from the Directorate-General for Economic Activities in Portugal were conducted to assess the expectations. The thematic analysis revealed that public officials do not change the priorities of eGovernment initiatives based on budget constraints and predominantly prioritize social aspirations over historical ones. This study highlights the importance of pragmatism driven by necessity alongside creativity. The findings have implications for issue prioritization, performance feedback, cutback management, and public administration literature in general. Future research should expand the study to include coercive aspiration levels, less salient issues, different countries, and different public organizations. Additionally, preferences and public sector motivation can be included as moderators, and employing a mixed-methods approach could be beneficial.Show less
Recent crises have brought asylum-migration to the forefront of political debate in Europe. There has been significant discourse in academic and policymaking spheres concerning migratory pull...Show moreRecent crises have brought asylum-migration to the forefront of political debate in Europe. There has been significant discourse in academic and policymaking spheres concerning migratory pull factors; in particular whether prospective socio-economic entitlements in destination countries are determinants of asylum applicants’ destination choice. Employment rights feature prominently in these discourses, yet few studies directly examine the relationship between labour market access and asylum inflows. This paper exploits Ireland’s transposition of the Recast Reception Conditions Directive in 2018, which ended a comprehensive ban on asylum applicants’ access to the labour market, in order to study the effects of labour market access on the magnitude and demographic composition of asylum applications. Using difference in difference and regression discontinuity methodologies, this paper finds that the labour market access reform caused an increase in the number of asylum applications and in the proportion of working-age applicants in Ireland. These findings contribute to a small body of quasi-experimental literature on the determinants of asylum inflows to destination countries.Show less
De opkomst van protesten, demonstraties en proteststemmen in Europa als gevolg van groeiende onvrede, wantrouwen en een gevoel niet gehoord te woorden door ‘de politieke’ en/of ‘de overheid’ raken...Show moreDe opkomst van protesten, demonstraties en proteststemmen in Europa als gevolg van groeiende onvrede, wantrouwen en een gevoel niet gehoord te woorden door ‘de politieke’ en/of ‘de overheid’ raken aan het fundament waar democratie als politiek- bestuurlijk systeem op is gebaseerd. Een democratie bestaat immers in ieder geval uit volkssoevereiniteit en meerderheidsheerschappij. Responsiviteit maakt hier een essentieel onderdeel van uit aangezien dit gaat over de mate waarin het handelen van de overheid, zoals vastgelegd in beleid en wet-en regelgeving, in overeenstemming is met de wil van het volk. Hoewel er veel onderzoek bestaat naar (overheids)responsiviteit en diens werking aan de ene kant en onderzoek naar politieke partijen en diens (electorale) werking aan de andere kant, is er geen recent en gedegen onderzoek dat deze twee min of meer gescheiden onderzoekvelden in de Europese context combineert. Dit onderzoek kijkt daarom als een van de eerste, aan de hand van een grote steekproef van Europese landen en een focus op herverdeling als concreet beleidsissue, naar de (mediërende) rol die politieke partijen spelen in de link tussen publieke opinie en (overheids)beleid via de centrale onderzoeksvraag: wat is het effect van voorkeuren van burgers ten aanzien van herverdeling op het daadwerkelijk gevoerde beleid van nationale overheden ten aanzien van herverdeling en in welke mate verloopt dit effect via de standpunten van politieke partijen ten aanzien van herverdeling? Door middel van Granger causaliteit in SPSS wordt een unieke dataset, bestaande uit data van de ESS, CHES, OECD en WDI, geanalyseerd. Uit het onderzoek blijkt, tegen de verwachtingen in, dat de voorkeur van burgers ten aanzien van herverdeling geen effect heeft op het daadwerkelijk gevoerde beleid van nationale overheden ten aanzien van herverdeling en dat dit effect niet verloopt via de stadpunten van politieke partijen ten aanzien van herverdeling. Deze onverwachte uitkomst roepen veel vragen op die het uitgangspunt zouden kunnen zijn voor toekomstig onderzoek.Show less
What is the effect of AI technology usage by bureaucrats under problematic conditions on the perceived legitimacy of bureaucratic decisions? Scholars argue that AI usage potentially exacerbates the...Show moreWhat is the effect of AI technology usage by bureaucrats under problematic conditions on the perceived legitimacy of bureaucratic decisions? Scholars argue that AI usage potentially exacerbates the negative consequences of misused bureaucratic discretion. Others suggest that AI usage might curtail bureaucratic discretion and increase outcomes of equity and efficiency. Existing empirical research demonstrates no significant difference between the perceived legitimacy of AI-assisted and human decision-making. This study aims to determine the effect of AI usage on the perceived legitimacy of bureaucratic decisions made under problematic principal-agent dilemma conditions. This effect is assessed across 96 survey respondents from the University of Leiden and the University of Amsterdam using experimental factorial survey analysis. The results of this research indicate that AI usage in decision-making has a significant positive effect on perceived legitimacy (p < 0.001). The main implication of this research is that AI usage can plausibly alleviate the impact of consequential bureaucratic decisions on perceived legitimacy by obscuring bureaucratic discretion. A second implication is that AI usage in bureaucratic decision-making exerts a notable effect on the perceived efficiency of bureaucratic decisions.Show less
Prediction models play a paramount role in various fields such as psychology and medicine, where the aim is to maximize predictive performance while ensuring high interpretability and stability....Show morePrediction models play a paramount role in various fields such as psychology and medicine, where the aim is to maximize predictive performance while ensuring high interpretability and stability. Prediction rule ensembles are a recent statistical learning method that address the black-box problem from common machine learning methods. First, an ensemble of trees is fitted, and by employing sparse regression, such as the lasso, only a subset of those trees is retained in the final ensemble, enhancing interpretability. However, the lasso suffers from drawbacks, considering that the optimal penalty parameter for variable selection may lead to an over-shrinkage of large coefficients. This study investigates if accuracy, sparsity, and stability of prediction rule ensembles can be improved by using the adaptive or relaxed lasso, or their combination. In the adaptive lasso, weight parameters are assigned to each coefficient in the penalty term, while in the relaxed lasso the lasso coefficients are debiased towards unpenalized values. In addition, in this study we compared if the results differ if the model selection was based on the lambda- 1se or lambda-min criterion and between continuous and binary outcomes. For this, the models were evaluated on nine benchmark datasets using repeated 10-fold cross-validation. The results show that all lasso variations improve model sparsity significantly while maintaining high accuracy, but at the cost of stability. The relaxed and adaptive lasso select sparser models than the standard lasso while achieving good stability of variable selection, but at the cost of less stable predictions. The relaxed adaptive lasso yields the sparsest model, but is the most unstable. Regarding lambda criterion, for continuous outcomes the lambda-minimum criterion leads to highly unstable results and diminishes the effect of lasso approach used. For binary outcomes, the lambda-1se criterion only improves accuracy and sparsity, but not stability, while for continuous outcomes it improves all performance diagnostics.Show less
Százhalombatta-Földvár is one of the biggest and most extensively studied Bronze Age tell sites in Hungary. Due to its location on a dry loessy high bluff zone on the Western bank of the river...Show moreSzázhalombatta-Földvár is one of the biggest and most extensively studied Bronze Age tell sites in Hungary. Due to its location on a dry loessy high bluff zone on the Western bank of the river Danube, a sedimentary environment that is appropriate for pollen preservation to conduct pollen analysis was not found around the site (Sumegi & Bodor, 2000). Instead, regional pollen analysis has been conducted to study the environment relating to the Százhalombatta-Földvár site. This regional sediment sample was obtained by coring from an oxbow lake about 500 m away from the site. During the Százhalombatta-Földvár excavation in 2022, however, the lithological examination of the floor sediment from [House] 9000 indicated the possibility for pollen preservation, followed by palynological investigation including the comparison to the regional pollen record. This unconventional method of pollen analysis was successfully conducted, yielding a well-preserved pollen assemblage. The methods of pollen analysis applied are pollen counts, taxonomic identification and states of preservation analysis. These methods indicate that the well-preserved pollen assemblage obtained from the unconventional context does not reflect the pollen assemblage from the oxbow lake pollen record. Especially the absence of arboreal pollen at the site compared to that recorded in the regional pollen data is conspicuous. These results allow us to discuss and investigate the sample from [House] 9000. Specifically, in the sample, taphonomic agents contributing to the absence of arboreal pollen in contrast with the regional palynological signal are analysed and the predominance of Poaceae is explained with taphonomic processes. Furthermore, the taphonomic agents causing the primary pollen preservation states are investigated and the taphonomic processes resulting in the preservation biases are explored in archaeological interpretation. In consequence, the investigation of the taphonomic processes suggests anthropogenic agents causing the discrepancy and bias in the pollen assemblage with the construction and materials used for [House] 9000. The pollen preservation state analysis revealed that the primary states of pollen preservation are degraded and folded. These in turn are evidence of the taphonomic processes of oxidisation and physical stress, which in combination with archaeological evidence suggests anthropogenic activities as cause. To conclude, this thesis could contribute to multi-disciplinary research and greater understanding of the Bronze Age site, Százhalombatta-Földvár. Moreover, it demonstrates new potential of palynological analysis employing an innovative sampling method that directly relates to the human activities at the site. The results of this thesis have the potential to stimulate further application of this new approach.Show less
Tegenwoordig worden ambtenaren geconfronteerd met een intrigerende paradox: enerzijds wordt van hen verwacht dat ze ambtelijke neutraliteit en neutrale bureaucratische competenties bezitten,...Show moreTegenwoordig worden ambtenaren geconfronteerd met een intrigerende paradox: enerzijds wordt van hen verwacht dat ze ambtelijke neutraliteit en neutrale bureaucratische competenties bezitten, anderzijds neemt de druk toe om politiek sensitief en responsief te zijn. Deze paradox weerspiegelt een verschuiving in de rol van ambtenaren, waarbij zij steeds meer dienen als instrument voor de bewindspersoon in diens politieke ambities. De ambtenaar in kwestie balanceert tussen traditionele bureaucratische normen verweven in het ministeriële bestel en de loyale uitvoering van de wil van verkozen politici, waarbij de ambtenaar zich in politieke aangelegenheden mengt. Dit onderzoek richt zich op de ambtenaren die zich bezighouden met overheidscommunicatie via de sociale media van bewindspersonen op Nederlandse ministeries. Er wordt onderzocht in welke mate functionele politisering van hun werkzaamheden plaatsvindt en wat dit veroorzaakt.Show less
In scientific research, interpretability and high predictive performance are difficult to combine: while black-box models perform better than interpretable models, only the latter allow for...Show moreIn scientific research, interpretability and high predictive performance are difficult to combine: while black-box models perform better than interpretable models, only the latter allow for transparency and inference, which are necessary tools when these models are used in decision-making or in hypothesis testing. Models such as RuleFit combine the flexibility of a black-box tree ensemble with the interpretability of a sparse, LASSO linear regression. Later work substitutes Bayesian regression for the LASSO regression, thus further improving the model’s prediction (Horserule). The work in this thesis was two-sided: on the one hand, we applied a different Bayesian prior (the informative Horseshoe prior) to the linear step of the RuleFit model, which can naturally take the structure of RuleFit into account. On the other hand, we used Shapley values to measure the contribution of each predictor in the RuleFit model and combined these values with the Bayesian regression to build inferential tools. The new machinery was tested on both synthetic data and the dataset from the Helius study. The predictive performance of the resulting model was observed to be higher than that of the original RuleFit model, but lower than that of Horserule. Compared to Horserule, the proposed model excessively favours trees over linearity, but in doing so it more strongly enforces the choice of simpler trees. Shapley values were also compared to other importance measures mentioned in the RuleFit literature, and shown to be more accurate in reconstructing the contributions as defined in the synthetic datasets.Show less
In onderhavig scriptieonderzoek wordt met een kritische blik gekeken naar de toegepaste prospectietechnieken en interpretaties van het drietal prospectieve onderzoeken in Geertjesgolf te Winssen,...Show moreIn onderhavig scriptieonderzoek wordt met een kritische blik gekeken naar de toegepaste prospectietechnieken en interpretaties van het drietal prospectieve onderzoeken in Geertjesgolf te Winssen, Moordhuizen en Angeren. Allen gelegen in het Gelderse deel van het Nederlandse rivierengebied. Tenslotte worden aanbevelingen gedaan voor toekomstige prospectieve onderzoeken binnen het rivierengebied. Aanleiding voor het onderzoek zijn de acties en gevolgen die hebben plaatsgevonden op de locaties Geertjesgolf te Winssen, Moordhuizen en Angeren, waarbij een archeologisch rijk landschap werd aangetroffen nadat de gebieden waren vrijgegeven. Ondanks dat grote delen van Geertjesgolf na deze vrijgave zijn weggegraven kon een groot gedeelte van het archeologische bodemarchief ex situ worden behouden. In het geval van Moordhuizen is zeer veel en met name bijzonder vondstmateriaal tijdens baggerwerkzaamheden verzameld. Echter is de context van het materiaal niet meer te achterhalen. Het onderzoek in Angeren daarentegen kent geen verloren archeologie. Nieuwe verwachtingsmodellen en bijbehorende prospectietechnieken tonen een haast feilloos systeem, waarmee archeologisch vindplaatsen op meerdere landschappelijk niveaus kunnen worden opgespoord. Tijdens het onderzoek veelvuldig gebruik gemaakt van literatuuronderzoek. Hierbij zijn met name (oudere) rapporten met betrekking tot het drietal onderzoeksgebieden geraadpleegd. Daarnaast is zowel analoog als digitaal kaartmateriaal bestudeerd. Het geraadpleegde kaartmateriaal had betrekking op archeologische- en landschappelijke verwachtingskaarten van de individuele onderzoeksgebieden als het Gelderse deel van het Nederlandse rivierengebied. Ten slotte heeft eigen opgedane ervaring tijdens archeologische onderzoeken in het rivierengebied als zeer belangrijke factor meegespeeld tijdens het onderzoek naar deze drietal prospectieve onderzoeken. De resultaten van onderhavig onderzoek laten zien dat relatief eenvoudige oorzaken hebben geleid tot het vrijgeven van twee van de drie onderzoeksgebieden. Een van de belangrijkste hoofdoorzaken is wellicht de misinterpretatie van komgebieden en hun onderliggende landschappen. Al vanaf de aanleg van de Betuweroute in 1995 ging men er van uit dat zij onaantrekkelijk waren voor menselijke activiteiten. Naar aanleiding van deze aanname vond in gebieden met een dergelijke bodemopbouw slechts in geringe mate archeologisch onderzoek plaats. Wanneer vervolgonderzoek wel plaats vond boorde men doorgaans slechts tot 2 a (maximaal) 3 meter, - Mv, waardoor de onderliggende landschappen vrijwel niet tot nauwelijks werden geïnterpreteerd. Daarnaast zorgde een natuurlijke factor voor verkeerde interpretaties van het landschap, namelijk de seizoenen. Doordat de rivieren in herfst en winter een relatief grote waterafvoer kennen, hadden de Maas uiterwaarden te maken met gemiddeld hoge grondwaterstanden. Als gevolg kon het opgeboorde boormonster niet tot nauwelijks worden opgehaald en beschreven. Tijdens latere onderzoeken in 2011 en 2017 werd de verkeerde interpretatie van het landschap bij Moordhuizen door middel van profieldocumentaties weer corrigeert, maar dit was immers al te laat. Groten delen waren in de jaren ervoor afgegraven en opgebaggerd. Zo ook waarschijnlijk de rijkste archeologische vindplaats van Nederland. Ondanks het grootte archeologische verlies in Geertjesgolf en Moordhuizen is een positieve leercurve op het gebied van prospectietechnieken te zien het archeologische werkveld. De landschappelijke kennis is in dermate toegenomen, waardoor archeologische vindplaatsen onder de komgebieden in groten getale tevoorschijn komen, zoals in het tracé van de verlengde Via15. Hieraan ten grondslag ligt het principediagram. Voortaan worden ingezette prospectietechnieken niet meer afgestemd op de nieuwste technieken en innovaties, maar op het type en aard van de verwachtte vindplaatsen in relatie met het landschap. Op basis van de verkregen resultaten van onderhavig onderzoek zijn aanbevelingen gegeven voor prospectief onderzoek in het rivierengebied. Eén van de hoofduitgangspunten is dat het principediagram standaard dient te worden gehandhaafd en te allen tijde dient te worden ingezet bij prospectief onderzoek in het rivierengebied. Daarnaast dient in uiterwaard- en kronkelwaarlandschappen de bodemopbouw enkel nog in kaart te worden gebracht doormiddel van profielkolommen of lengteprofielen, met een voorkeur in drogere seizoenen met een gemiddeld lage grondwaterstand. Ten slotte dienen er meer specifiek gerichte vraagstelling met betrekking het complexe rivierengebied worden opgesteld, zodat onterechte vrijgave van toekomstige onderzoeksgebieden voorkomen kan worden.Show less